Heading into Game 3 with the series tied at 1-1, Isiah, Shaq and Kenny break down the outlook for the Thunder and Pacers.
INDIANAPOLIS — The last time this city played host to an NBA Finals game was almost exactly 25 years ago — June 16, 2000 — when Indiana smacked the Los Angeles Lakers 120-87 in Game 5.
It was nice but hardly jubilant, given that the Lakers had led 3-2 in the series anyway and were heading home in the Finals’ old 2-3-2 format with two shots to close things out. They did so in Game 6 a few nights later for the first NBA title of the Shaquille O’Neal/Kobe Bryant/Phil Jackson era.
The circumstances for the Finals’ return to this city, however, might have more in common with what happened a year later. In June 2001, the considerable underdog Philadelphia 76ers grabbed Game 1 from the Lakers on the strength of guard Allen Iverson’s 48 points (and iconic step-over vs. Tyronn Lue).
Then L.A. plowed through the next four games, three of them on the Sixers’ court, by a total of 40 points to win championship No. 2 of the Lakers’ eventual three-peat.
Now, as then, the road team stole Game 1, thanks to Tyrese Haliburton’s cold-blooded jump shot with just 0.3 seconds left. But series favorite Oklahoma City, which won 18 more games than Indiana in the regular season, found its footing to seize Game 2, 123-107.
Going home must mean more to the Pacers than it did for Philadelphia a quarter century ago.
Here are four things to look for as Indiana attempts to assert some homecourt advantage at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Wednesday, 8:30 ET, ABC), while the Thunder try to grab it back:
1. Pacers eat when SGA sits
Indiana needs to make the Thunder’s “non-SGA minutes” into a thing in this series. One of the more accessible analytical tools introduced in recent years has been on/off numbers, which track a team’s efficiency when a certain player is on the floor vs. how it plays when he is on the bench.
It came into vogue with Nikola Jokić, Denver’s legendary center who never seems to have enough help. Jokić has won three Kia MVP awards for several reasons, but none less than the fact that the Nuggets typically outscored teams by about 547 points when he was on the court, while getting outscored by something like 439 when he sits. It became a dramatic focus in his team’s 2023 title run, with fans poised to see the bottom drop out for Denver when the big man happened to need a breather.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won this season’s MVP without needing that indicator of “value.” The Thunder were 16.7 points better than their opponents per 100 possessions with the scoring champ in the game and still 5.2 points better when he sat down. That net rating of 5.2 would have ranked fourth overall, showing how good OKC was even without its best player.
The pattern has held through the playoffs — 12.8 vs. 6.9. Through two games of the Finals, OKC has been eight points better than Indiana with Gilgeous-Alexander in play, seven points better when he’s on the side.
The Pacers need to address that second number. Whether it’s Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso or someone else initiating OKC’s offense when Gilgeous-Alexander is out of the game, Indiana needs to attack and at least win those scant minutes. Flip the energy they expend trying to slow Gilgeous-Alexander into their offense.
They did it in Game 1, outscoring them by four in the 8:26 Gilgeous-Alexander was out. They need to do it repeatedly, because if Indiana can’t win the minutes Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t play, does it think it can win the ones he does?
2. Haliburton plays more aggressively
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander delivers an efficient gem while an unaggressive Tyrese Haliburton struggles on both ends of the court.
This is the stuff of facile halftime analysis, a suggestion that a star player “has to do more” or “has to step up.” Yeah, OK, no kidding. The frequently unanswered follow-up is: How exactly?
It’s tricky for a player such as Haliburton to impose his will on a game because he’s a pass-first point guard. He relies on his teammates to get open and hit shots, if only in spurts, to open opportunities for himself as a scorer. He isn’t a volume shooter like Gilgeous-Alexander (who can squeeze the trigger another 10 times to keep his team afloat).
That said, Haliburton has finished each game of the Finals with 13 shots. He has scored 14 and 17 points, respectively, with 12 in Game 2 coming too late in the final quarter. That’s not enough. When the Pacers guard has scored at least 20 in these playoffs, they are 7-1. When he’s finished below that? Just 6-4.
The same goes for his shot totals. Fifteen or more, 8-1. Fewer than that, 5-4. And Haliburton has yet to shoot a free throw in the Finals (he averaged 3.5 in the Pacers’ first 16 postseason games).
So whatever it requires — getting Haliburton the ball on the run (the Thunder so far have jammed him on those) or passing, cutting and getting it back — he must be more assertive as a scorer. A least a little.
3. Holmgren’s defense goes beyond rim
Chet Holmgren, the Thunder’s gangly big man, didn’t play well in the Finals opener. However, he increased his impact considerably in Game 2, which went well beyond his 15 points, six rebounds and one blocked shot.
The 7-foot-1, 208-pound Holmgren showed defensive prowess in just about every form and situation asked of him Sunday. He and his teammates aren’t reluctant to have him switch onto smaller, quicker players because Holmgren moves his feet well generally and, with his length, doesn’t need to play as close to an attacker to deter the shot.
Holmgren can also stray as far as necessary on the ball and knows the restricted area is covered when he’s on the court with center Isaiah Hartenstein. Coach Mark Daigneault also praised both bigs for their work against the Pacers’ pick-and-rolls in Game 2.
4. Listen for the whistles
Plenty of Pacers fans felt OKC was permitted to play its physical, handsy style of defense in its two home games while Indiana didn’t get nearly the same latitude. That might be fan-speak, of course, though it’s possible each team’s reputation subtly influenced some of the calls.
The boisterous crowd at Paycom Center might have had something to do with it, too. That changes now, with Games 3 and 4 set for Gainbridge Fieldhouse and Indiana’s equally passionate (if not quite as loud) crowds.
For the record, here are the numbers to this point: Oklahoma City has been called for 39 fouls, has shot 57 free throws and made 50. For Indiana, it’s 47, 47 and 34. That OKC advantage of 16 points from the foul line is pretty pivotal, considering it has outscored the Pacers by just 15 in the two games overall.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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