Brian Baumgartner talks fantasy football and sports fandom of his ‘Office’ co-stars
Brian Baumgartner, know for his role as Kevin Malone on ‘The Office’ stops by to talk fantasy football and his partnership with Sam Adams.
Drafting an early-round bust in fantasy football is like being a Jets fan. Your season is over before it even starts.
For this article, we’ll define “bust” as someone with a positional average draft position (ADP) of 30 or higher who missed his ADP by at least 10 slots. For example, if a back had an ADP of RB14, he’d have had to finish as the RB24 or worse to be considered a bust.
Rather than trying to pinpoint busts, we’ll use a process of elimination to exclude players whose trends don’t align with previous busts. In other words, we’ll look back at all the running backs who busted over the last eight years, attempt to identify common trends, and eliminate those who don’t meet those benchmarks.
An important note before we dive in — this is a shortlist of candidates based on trends. These are NOT predictions.
2025 POSITION RANKINGS:Â QBÂ |Â RBÂ |Â WRÂ |Â TEÂ |Â KÂ |Â D/STÂ |Â Overall
2025 fantasy football RB busts
Note: All fantasy scoring references are half-PPR, and all ADP data is via FantasyPros.
To generate this shortlist, we’ll look at the running back busts from the last eight years and identify common trends from their preceding seasons. Rookies are excluded, given that they’re in their first season.
In all, there were 80 players during this stretch who fit the bust criteria, but we’ll focus on the runners who didn’t bust primarily due to injury. To do that, we’ll narrow the parameters to those who busted despite missing four games or fewer. That gives us a list of 31 running backs.
Here are the trends:
0.38 — As you’ll gather from most of these trends, inefficiency is a key indicator for a potential bust. In our sample, 25 of the 31 backs averaged 0.38 fantasy points per snap or less.
0.85 — On a very related note, 25 of the 31 running back busts averaged less than 0.85 fantasy points per touch. Using fantasy points per opportunity would have yielded similar results.
0.45 — There are several ways to dissect volume, but one of the most predictive signals is how often a player gets the ball when he’s on the field. On that note, 24 of the 31 busts averaged fewer than 0.45 touches per snap in their preceding season.
9.8 — The correlation of pass-catching to fantasy production is well-documented, and that’s especially true in today’s NFL. Of our 31-player sample, only three averaged more than 9.8 yards after the catch per reception.
14 — The final trend ties in two predictive metrics, volume and high-value pass-catching opportunities. Over the last eight years, only four of the 31 running back busts totaled 14 or more red zone targets.
So, who are the fantasy football RB bust candidates?
Here are the six players who failed to be eliminated by any of the thresholds above (ranked in order of positional ADP):
- Kyren Williams (11.7 ADP) – Unimpressive efficiency is something Williams has in common with most of the highly drafted busts in recent years. Among the 17 busts in our sample with an ADP higher than RB20, Kyren’s 2024 season would have ranked third-worst in yards per touch and yards per snap, as well as dead last in yards per route run. He’d also have been in the bottom third in fantasy points per opportunity. Additionally, the Rams have two top-120 picks on the depth chart behind him (Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter), so his leash might not be as long if the inefficiency continues.
- Breece Hall (16.0 ADP) – Hall already busted last year, though that came at a premium ADP of RB2 (he finished as the RB17). Being inefficient in a potential timeshare on a bad offense could result in a second consecutive bust season for Hall. At least this year’s ADP won’t kill your team if he tanks.
- Kenneth Walker III (16.7 ADP) – Based strictly on his 2024 performance, Walker is a risk on two fronts. His 3.7 yards per carry ranks dead last among all backs going inside the top-30 this year, and he’s also missed 20% of Seattle’s games through three seasons. That said, the upside is tantalizing, and the risk seems to be baked into his ADP.
- Chuba Hubbard (17.7 ADP) – Hubbard ended up being one of the best picks in fantasy last year, but there are reasons for skepticism ahead of 2025. The 26-year-old wasn’t very efficient, particularly as a receiver. Among the 43 backs with at least 20 receptions, Hubbard ranked last in yards per route run and tied for last in yards after catch per reception.
- Tony Pollard (24.0 ADP) – Among all running backs with a top-30 positional ADP, only Isiah Pacheco averaged fewer fantasy points per opportunity than Pollard. Pollard struggled as a receiver, finishing the 2024 season in a tie for last place in yards after the catch per reception. Tyjae Spears starting the season on IR gives Pollard some leeway, but his leash might not be as long this year.
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. (28.7 ADP) – Tracy was one of the best waiver pickups last year, but his volume and efficiency were all over the place. Among the top 30 backs drafted this year, Tracy ranked last in opportunities per snap and second-worst in fantasy points per snap last season. Even after he took over as lead back in Week 5, he still had five games with fewer than 14 touches. In addition to a healthy Devin Singletary, he’ll have to fend off rookie Cam Skattebo in New York’s backfield this season.
Fantasy football RB workload concerns
Four running backs had at least 344 touches last season — Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry. Since 2010, 34 players have handled that kind of workload, and here are their trends from the following season:
- All but five of the backs (85%) saw declines in their per-game production the following season, including 22 who experienced declines of 20% or more.
- All but five of those runners sustained total fantasy-point declines larger than 17%. More than two-thirds of the 34 backs had their total points decline by at least 26%.
