It promises to be an entertaining third day at the US Open with the first round due to conclude with 20 matches. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match, including Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo, Jannik Sinner vs Vit Kopriva, and Gael Monfils vs Roman Safiullin. But who will reach the second round?
US Open Day 3 Predictions
Nuno Borges vs Brandon Holt
Zain: Nuno Borges enters this match as the favorite, with his power game likely to be enough to see him through. Although the crowd will be heavily behind local player Brandon Holt, fan support might help him steal a set, but it is unlikely to be enough to win three.
Prediction: Borges in 4
Tope: Despite the gulf in rankings, facing a talented American on home soil can be a banana peel, so the vastly experienced Borges must up his game to avoid a gruelling battle. He should still have enough to see this out
Prediction: Borges in 5
Damian: Last few matches have been quite difficult for Borges, but Holt also isn’t in his Top 100 breaking form that led him to huge Challenger success earlier in the season. On the main tour he’s mostly been outmatched, which leads you to believe than even an out of form Borges should probably get this done.
Prediction: Borges in 4
Embed from Getty Images
Tommy Paul vs Elmer Moller
Zain: Tommy Paul and Elmer Moller played a highly entertaining match at Roland Garros earlier this year, which the American won. Conditions in New York should suit Paul even better, given his all-court prowess. While fitness may be a question mark, he should still be good enough to pass the Moller test at a major once again.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Tope: The US Open is the only Grand Slam event where Tommy Paul has yet to progress to the quarterfinals and will be aiming to break through that barrier this season. Elmer Moller, 22, will be making his debut at the US Open after having made his Grand Slam debut in 2025 French Open, interestingly against Tommy Paul. He won the first set, before the American rallied to take the match. Don’t be surprised if there’s a repeat scenario in New York.
Prediction: Paul in 4
Damian: Rematch for the Roland Garros opening round, but it will be much tougher for Moller to compete on hard courts with the serve and forehand liabilities. At least this time the fitness of Paul is under a big question mark. However, the reality is that even not at 100% it’s the American who’s going to win this one.
Prediction: Paul in 4
Francisco Cerundolo vs Matteo Arnaldi
Zain: On paper, Francisco Cerundolo against Matteo Arnaldi has real popcorn potential, with Cerundolo’s heavy forehand and Arnaldi’s flair for highlight shots. However, Cerundolo’s fitness remains a concern, as he has not played since retiring mid-match over three weeks ago. That could tilt things toward the Italian.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 4
Tope: Both players have never lost a first-round match at Flushing Meadows and despite having recent difficulties, Cerundolo has enjoyed a better season and arrives in better form compared to Arnaldi. Not impossible for the Italian to spring a surprise as he is capable of, but the Argentine is the more composed player on his day
Prediction: Cerundolo in 5
Damian: Cerundolo hasn’t played since retiring to Zverev in Toronto and that’s a tricky opener for him against Arnaldi. The Italian has been completely out of confidence, but maybe he can excel in a matchup where there’s not much thinking to do and you mostly have to respond to the pace coming at you off the Cerundolo forehand.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 5
Embed from Getty Images
Valentin Royer vs Bu Yunchaokete
Zain: Valentin Royer earned a wildcard into this tournament through the reciprocal agreement between the USTA and FFT, where wildcards are exchanged between the US Open and Roland Garros. Unfortunately for him, his stay in New York may be short-lived, as Bu Yunchaokete has been playing solid tennis and should have too much quality here.
Prediction: Bu in 3
Tope: Bu is a more consistent baseliner who effectively covers the court and draws mistakes from his opponents. Royer may be susceptible on his backhand side, and Bu will look to take advantage of that as the match progresses. With more experience and consistency at the higher tour level, Bu will have the upper hand in this one
Prediction: Bu in 4
Damian: Bu just had a Winston-Salem run, but overall has struggled on the main tour since the great Asian Swing campaign from last year. Trying to get that first Grand Slam win is slowly becoming a saga as well, it would be beneficial for him to end the discussion right now. Let’s say he does it, but it won’t be easy and they’re really not far off one another.
Prediction: Bu in 5
Main photo credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
