Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
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Yu Darvish is rounding into form, helping the San Diego Padres challenge the Los Angeles Dodgers for NL West supremacy. He’s 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA in August, but a 3.82 xFIP, .80 WHIP and 21.6% K-BB% mark indicate he’s pitched well. Five homers in 20 frames this month bloated his ERA, but long balls usually normalize over a larger sample. That said, Darvish will be challenged by the Seattle Mariners and an offense showing more pop this month, in part because of trade deadline acquisitions to supplement Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez. Even so, the Mariners fan at an elevated clip, so if Darvish can keep the ball in the yard, he lines up for a productive evening on the road.
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Brayan Bello‘s 3.07 ERA is deemed over a run too low via xFIP and SIERA. A pedestrian strikeout rate puts Bello at risk, but he’s helped himself by exhibiting above-average command and control. Bello has pitched at least six innings in 14 of his 23 outings, adding to his points league allure. Bello has a tough road date with the Baltimore Orioles on tap, but the Orioles are without three regulars and are auditioning several youngsters, which will help Bello navigate the lineup.
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Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek were acquired by the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline, shipping C Freddy Fermin to the San Diego Padres. It wasn’t a dump deal but rather trading from strength to bolster their rotation. Bergert responded with a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in four starts since the deal, fanning 22 with only six walks in 22 1/3 innings. He’s 0-1 in this span, but the Royals are 2-2 in his starts. Bergert is in a good spot to pick up his first win with the Royals when he takes the hill in Rate Field against the Chicago White Sox.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
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Not only is Shohei Ohtani still on an innings limit, but he’s also struggled in his past two outings, yielding nine runs over 8 1/3 innings. Though, to be fair, his last effort was in Coors Field. However, he was hit by a comebacker against the Colorado Rockies, and even though Ohtani has served as the DH for the past few games, the Dodgers will be careful with the leading candidate for NL MVP.
Today’s best matchups for pitchers
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.69 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.80 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.82 ERA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for pitchers
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.95 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.36 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.06 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Today’s best matchups for hitters
Detroit Tigers LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .337 wOBA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .252 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today’s top HR prop bets
Alex Bregman | OVER 0.5 HR (+525) 
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.19 EV
One reason to bet this: Bregman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season. Compare his 94.4-mph average to last season’s 90.9-mph mark.
Ceddanne Rafaela | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.92 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast calls for the fourth-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Carlos Narvaez | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the No. 5 venue in the league for righty home runs, via my projections.
Today’s top pitcher prop bets
Cade Cavalli | UNDER 4.5 K (-100)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.26 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, Riley Adams (the Nationals’ expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.
Ryan Gusto | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.98 EV
One reason to bet this: Gusto has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.72 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 7.95 — a 0.77 K/9 gap.
Joey Wentz | OVER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.28 EV
One reason to bet this: The Marlins have three batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to my projections) — Derek Hill, Heriberto Hernandez and Joey Wiemer.
Today’s top YRFI/NRFI bets
Padres @ Mariners | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $4.86 EV
Rockies @ Astros | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $3.19 EV
D-Backs @ Brewers | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $2.30 EV
