Manel Kape is as close as he’s ever been to fighting for the flyweight championship.
It was all laid out for the Portuguese striker when the UFC Vegas 103 main event was first announced. Beat Brandon Royval, a recent title challenger, and then move on to face Alexandre Pantoja (or the winner of Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France, if that rumored bout comes to fruition). As it so often goes in this business, those plans took a turn when Royval was forced to withdraw due to injury and Asu Almabayev was put in his place.
Kape should still be the No. 1 contender with a win—he’s currently No. 10 at flyweight in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, but keep in mind Pantoja has already fought many of the top contenders (including Kape), some more than once—but he now faces a lesser known opponent that is arguably more dangerous than Royval. It’s never easy getting to the top, is it?
Don’t rule out the No. 13-ranked Almabayev upsetting Kape and putting the matchmakers on the spot with a championship callout. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, 21-2 as a pro, and he’s won 17 straight fights. Add in a win over Kape and those numbers add up to a more-than-worthy title challenger.
What: UFC Vegas 103
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, March 1. The five-fight preliminary card begins at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
If we get the Manel Kape that showed up against Bruno “Bulldog” Silva, I might pick that guy to beat anyone. Even Alexandre Pantoja.
Say what you want about Kape’s often inconsistent output, he was marvelous at UFC Tampa. Silva is an underrated flyweight contender and Kape made it look like he didn’t belong in the octagon with him. That was the Kape everyone has been waiting for since he made the jump from RIZIN five years ago.
Asu Almabayev should implement much of the same strategies that Muhammad Mokaev did when he won an otherwise forgettable decision against Kape. The difference is Almabayev actually punches people on the ground, unlike Mokaev. No one is going to mistake him for prime Mark Coleman, but Almabayev’s ability to score points and not just rack up unconvincing control time should make a strong impression with the judges.
It’s on Kape to make sure this doesn’t go to the scorecards. Almabayev isn’t a bad striker, but his defense will be put to the test because Kape attacks with speed and from a variety of angles. One bad takedown attempt is all Kape needs to drive a counter knee through Almabayev’s dome piece.
I don’t feel great about it, but I have Almabayev as my pick to be flyweight champion by the end of 2025 and I have to stick to my guns. He spoils Kape’s plans tonight.
Pick: Almabayev
Julian Marquez vs. Cody Brundage
If I hear the UFC or anyone else refer to this as a co-main event again, I might snap.
Not every fight that’s second to last on a card is a co-main event. That’s not how these things work. There are no stakes here, no ranked contenders involved, no longtime fan favorites, no legends on a farewell tour. Respectfully. This is a penultimate bout. That’s a more accurate way of putting it and still sounds kind of cool.
I don’t mean to insult Julian Marquez (stepping in for The Ultimate Fighter 32 winner Ryan Loder) nor Cody Brundage. They don’t schedule the fights. But this such an odd placement for this matchup and how it’s being promoted. Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak and hasn’t picked up a win since April 2021. The last guy he beat? The immortal Sam Alvey!
Just look at this graphic they made for Marquez.
What are we doing?!?
Brundage went winless in 2024, falling to Bo Nickal and then going to a no-contest with Abdul Razak Alhassan after Alhassan went Happy-Go-Jacky on the back of his head with elbows. Not including the NC, he’s 10-6 in his career. Suffice to say, this isn’t exactly a clash of the titans.
Anyway, give me Brundage in this one. He’s a gritty wrestler who can survive Marquez’s dangerous striking and frustrate him with takedowns. You can’t rule out Marquez because he has his back against the wall and he’ll fight like it, but Brundage always goes in there like his job is on the line. In this case, that’s probably true for both guys.
Brundage by decision.
Pick: Brundage
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics
Now this is a co-main event matchup! Or close to it, anyway.
We’ve got two fantastic lightweights lined up here with the more battle-tested Nasrat Haqparast facing one of the division’s most exciting up-and-comers, Esteban Ribovics. Forget mixing the martial arts, this is going to be an old-fashioned throw-down, one that belongs outside the cozy confines of the UFC APEX.
On the other hand, the smaller cage means Haqparast and Ribovics have less room to maneuver, and that means we’ll be treated to one breathtaking clash after another. In that situation, I favor Ribovics, who specializes in punishing combinations. Haqparast’s left hand can change the game at at any moment though, so this will be anything but a comfortable win for Ribovics.
Expect another Fight of the Night candidate from these striking specialists, with Ribovics coming out on top after landing the lion’s share of the power punches.
Pick: Ribovics
William Gomis vs. Hyder Amil
I’ve frequently referred to William Gomis as the featherweight Leon Edwards and I stand by that description and all the positive and negative connotations that come with it. He’s a skilled fighter in all aspects of the game, has great cardio, and just knows how to win. It doesn’t matter that viral highlights have been few and far between for him, he’s 4-0 in the UFC and he recently stole a split decision from one of the division’s boogeymen, Joanderson Brito.
Hyder Amil is pretty much the opposite. The 34-year-old is young in his career and unproven, despite showing some tantalizing potential as a knockout striker. His best bet is to catch Gomis early, something few have been able to do to the defensive-minded Frenchman.
I mistakenly took Brito to beat Gomis last time (fair or not, Brito lost on the scorecards), so I’m going to ride with Gomis until he faces someone in the top 15 or a more compelling prospect. He just has too many tools with which to drag Amil through a tough three-round contest.
Pick: Gomis
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
In Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson, we have two tall and rangy welterweights who use their physical attributes in different ways. While Barlow is more tactical, seeking to peck away at his foes until an opening presents itself, Patterson is more inclined to counter and look for opportunities to grapple.
That favors Barlow, who has better tools for leading the dance. True, he hasn’t shown the same finishing acumen as Patterson, but that has more to do with style matchups and opportunity. Barlow isn’t going out of his comfort zone to chase a knockout and that might be what gets him the win here.
Both these guys have the potential to be welterweight mainstays, but I’m going with Barlow to score a knockout in the second or third round.
Pick: Barlow
Preliminaries
Mario Pinto def. Austen Lane
Chepe Mariscal def. Ricardo Ramos
Danny Silva def. Lucas Almeida
JJ Aldrich def. Andrea Lee
Ramazan Temirov def. Charles Johnson
