MLB Preview: Scuffling Pirates shamble into NYC for series with Mets

The New York Mets (26-15) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-27) for a three-game series in Queens following series in which each time faced a division rival from the other’s division. The Pirates won their only two games in their last ten against the Atlanta Braves who, quietly, have boosted their record to being just two games under .500. Meanwhile, the Mets took two of three from the first place Cubs and, if Brett Baty had anything to say about it, almost swept Chicago if not for some additional runs the bullpen coughed up on Saturday.

It feels like in every series preview piece, it is noted that the Mets have not exactly gelled yet, but they’re still winning. This has become a different way to say that the bullpen is still faltering a bit Juan Soto is still not exactly his 2024 self yet. In Sunday’s game against the Cubs, there was a rare show of emotion from Soto, which saw him slam his bat into home plate after striking out.

Soto had a strong series against the Diamondbacks and a nice start to the Cubs series, hitting his third home run in two days, but went hitless an walk less in the Saturday and Sunday games, striking out four times in the process. Soto is going to be just fine, as evidenced by his strong week, but he still isn’t looking like the no-doubt Hall of Fame player that the Mets signed to a huge contract. He’s merely looking like a very, very good hitter. This, too, shall pass.

The positives from this weekend were plentiful, however. Clay Holmes and Griffin Canning each went six innings of one run ball. Canning gave up just two hits, one walk, and struck out five on Sunday, with Holmes surrendering three hits and three walks, along with five strikeouts. Both kept their teams very much in the games and both continue to exceed expectations. Tylor Megill, however, had a rough day at the ballpark on Saturday, and perhaps the early season bloom is off Megill’s rose at this point.

The bats were on full display in Friday night’s 7-2 win, with Francisco Lindor, Baty, Jeff McNeil, and Soto all homering on the way to the rout. And on Sunday, after some low scoring early innings, Mark Vientos, Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo all hit dingers to push the Mets into dub territory. With two doubles across the series, Pete Alonso remains hot as well.

Even with Megill’s spotty start, Saturday had some good news for the Mets, as Baty hit two huge home runs with men on base to get the Mets close both times. If not for Max Kranick’s bad eighth inning, the Mets would’ve swept the Cubs.

All of this is to say is that, even with some bullpen woes still showing up and Soto only playing at 75% of his expected effectiveness, the Mets are fine and people need to stop worrying. Taking two of three from the best scoring team in baseball will hopefully silence a bit of the ‘the Mets schedule has been easy’ discourse. Yes, their schedule has been easier than some, but they’ve still been winning those games. Again, the Pirates, a team that is living in the basement of the NL Central, just took two from the Braves, a team that has been the living embodiment of ‘this team is better than their record’ since the start of the season. You still have to beat bad teams, and the Mets have been doing that.

The Pirates, on the other hand, aside from this blip against Atlanta, haven’t been beating many people as of late. Winners of just two if their last ten, the Pirates have won just three series this season thus far and have been dealing with bad press about their ownership group disrespecting one of the greatest players of all time, ripping up fan bricks, and the tragic accident that saw a fan fall from the stands onto the field.

The Pirates are a franchise with a storied history and the best ballpark in baseball, but Bob Nutting’s ownership group has routinely decided to not build around their young stars and not spend his considerable resources on the team. He’s a terrible, terrible owner, and we Mets fans know from terrible owners. The Pirates and their fans deserve better.

Right now, the Pirates have a few of those young stars that you’d hope Nutting would build around, and if you squint hard enough, there are some pieces on the 2025 squad that could have been the core of a winning team. Paul Skenes is one of the most exciting pitchers in years and years, Oneil Cruz has generational speed, and returning local hero Andrew McCutchen still has something left in the tank. But Nutting refuses to do much with the roster, and so here we are. Despite Joey Bart having a solid season behind the dish and Andrew Heaney looking like he did a decade ago, the team just isn’t built to win.

Monday, May 12: David Peterson vs. Paul Skenes, 7:10pm on SNY

Peterson (2024): 38.1 IP, 36 K, 13 BB, 3 HR, 3.52 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 88 ERA-

Peterson’s last start against the Diamondbacks was not great, but it did see him complete six innings for the third time this season. While Peterson hasn’t looked as consistently good as he did in 2024, he has settled into a very respectable starter who can be counted on to not let games get out of control, which was always his bugaboo earlier in his career. The Mets have only lost two of his seven starts this season, and he’s only given up more than two earned runs once all season.

Skenes (2024): 48.2 IP, 47 K, 12 BB, 4 HR, 2.77 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 65 ERA-

What is there to say about Skenes? The Rookie of the Year last season came in third in Cy Young voting, was an All-Star, and even got an MVP vote. He’s been a little less consistent this season thus far, but his lack of blockbuster success is more about a team that doesn’t score for him than anything else. In his most recent start agains the Cardinals, he lost a 2-1 decision in which he struck out six and allowed just three hits in six innings. His ERA is under 3, he’s within range of all of his batted ball numbers from last season, and the only real blemish on the season thus far is that he’s striking out fewer batters than he did last year. He’s still one of the better pitchers in baseball, and Pittsburgh likely won’t capitalize on that.

Tuesday, May 13: Kodai Senga vs. Mitch Keller, 7:10pm on SNY

Senga (2024): 38.2 IP, 35 K, 17 BB, 1 HR, 1.16 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 29 ERA-

We are nearing the point where everyone who doubted Senga’s ability after an injury-destroyed 2024 will look exceedingly stupid. After a shaky first start, Senga has been everything the Mets could’ve hoped for. While his strikeouts are down, he’s getting a ton of weak contact, often on the ground, and he’s keeping hitters off balance. Since he’s first start, he hasn’t allowed a home run and, while he’s walking more batters than you’d like, those batters aren’t scoring. If it is a matter of a little rust still coming off Senga, the idea of what he’ll look like in a few months is truly exciting. if this is what we’re going to get in 2025, it is still exciting. Long live the Ghost Fork.

Keller (2024): 45.0 IP, 35 K, 15 BB, 3 HR, 4.40 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 103 ERA-

Since joining the Pirates’ rotation full tine in 2022, Keller has settled into a reliable back of the rotation starter. You’re going to get an ERA a little over four, he’s going to give up way too many home runs, and he’ll more or less keep you in games. This season, he’s actually limiting his home runs far more effectively, but the overall results look fairly similar to what we’ve seen in the past.

Wednesday, May 12: Clay Holmes vs. Bailey Falter, 7:10pm on SNY

Holmes (2024): 42.2 IP, 44 K, 16 BB, 1 HR, 2.74 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 69 ERA-

In what seems like a runner through all of these Mets starters, Holmes is settling in to a very nice first season as a starter since 2018. After a dominant spring, Holmes’s early season performances were plagued by short appearances and the inability to put batters away. That has all changed since mid-April, where he’s dropped more than a full run off of his ERA and has consistently gone later into games. Despite giving up his first home run of the season on Friday night, Holmes is looking more like his spring training self. The Mets haven’t lost a Holmes start since Opening Day.

Falter (2024): 43.1 IP, 31 K, 13 BB, 6 HR, 4.36 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 103 ERA-

With a name like Falter, it is hard to not make puns about a lack of success, but Falter has bad a couple of good seasons thus far in his career. His 2024 was one of the bright spots for the Pirates, putting up a 1.7 bWAR campaign where he started in a career high number of games and establish himself as an important piece of the Pirates rotation. Aside from disastrous start against the Yankees on April 5and the Dodgers on April 27th, Falter has been quite good this season. In his most recent start against the Braves, he through six innings of shutout ball, allowing just two hits and no runs. More encouraging than that start is his previous against the Padres, where he went seven innings where the only run was a solo home run. Beating the Padres shows that Falter can hold his own against good teams, too, as all of his prior wins this season came against poor teams.