Inside the NBA: With Jayson Tatum out, Boston will need to lean on ‘Celtic Pride’ to extend the series.
The Boston Celtics, the defending champions who were never threatened on their way to the 2024 title, are suddenly facing elimination … without their best player.
Jayson Tatum could be out for the next year, having suffered a ruptured right Achilles tendon late in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday. And the Celtics, down 3-1 after blowing another double-digit, second-half lead, will try to stay alive in Game 5 on Wednesday (7 ET, TNT).
Winning without Tatum will be difficult, but not impossible. Boston is 9-2 without Tatum (3-2 against playoff teams) this season.
Winning three straight against the Knicks? That’s a tougher task, especially with Kristaps Porziņģis clearly suffering the effects of an illness. But the first step is just winning Game 5.
“We just got to find a way,” Derrick White said Monday. “Whoever’s out there, whatever it takes.”
Here are some notes, numbers and film as the series heads back to Boston …
1. Jaylen Brown has to be better
With Tatum out, the spotlight is obviously on Jaylen Brown, who has an effective field goal percentage of just 42.2% in this series.
Despite Brown’s struggles, the Celtics have survived, outscoring the Knicks by two points in his 30 minutes on the floor without Tatum, thanks to some defensive numbers …
Celtics with Brown and/or Tatum on the floor in conf. semis
| On floor | MIN | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown + Tatum | 125 | 113.1 | 101.2 | +11.9 | +30 |
| Brown, no Tatum | 30 | 114.3 | 101.6 | +12.6 | +2 |
| Tatum, no Brown | 41 | 109.2 | 127.8 | -18.6 | -18 |
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Their offensive game plan will begin with targeting Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns with ball-screens set for Brown. Through the first four games, Brunson (21) or Towns (16) have been the screener’s defender on 37 of the 53 ball-screens when Brown was the ball-handler, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Brunson has held up OK on some big possessions where he’s switched onto Brown, but the Knicks’ primary coverage is for Brunson to hedge out and try to recover back to his man as Brown’s defender (*Josh Hart, usually) tries to get back to the ball.
* With Tatum out, we could see OG Anunoby take the Brown assignment on Wednesday.
The hedge-and-recover coverage could open things up for the Celtics if Brown makes quick decisions.
On their first possession of the third quarter of Game 4, the Celtics set two screens for Brown, the first at Towns and the second at Brunson. White slipped out of the second screen and got a clean catch-and-shoot 3-point attempt, with the option to drive by Towns’ close-out and possibly create an even better shot …
The Celtics rank last in ball movement (266 passes per 24 minutes of possession) and 15th in player movement (10.1 miles traveled per 24 minutes) in the playoffs. There were a couple of instances of increased movement creating great shots in Game 4 …
… but those kinds of possessions have been few and far between.
Without Tatum’s one-on-one ability, the Celtics will need more movement in their offense going forward. And with Towns more likely to switch screens for Brown, attacking Brunson (and bending the defense more) could be the better game plan.
2. Should the Celtics play small?
When healthy, the Celtics have six starters. But Porziņģis’ struggles make it harder to replace Tatum’s production.
The Celtics played almost seven minutes of the fourth quarter of Game 4 without Brown, who was in foul trouble. And for that entire time that Brown was on the bench, they played big, with two guards, Tatum, Al Horford and Porziņģis.
It didn’t go well, with one sequence — a missed layup and a blow-by on the other end — illustrating Porziņģis’ issues pretty well. And over the four games, the Celtics have been outscored by 11 points (8.9 per 100 possessions) in 63 total minutes with two bigs (some combination of Horford, Porziņģis and Luke Kornet) on the floor.
As things stand, a lineup with the Celtics’ five best players would be Payton Pritchard, White, Jrue Holiday, Brown and Horford. That lineup has actually played more minutes in the playoffs (12) than it did in the regular season (10).
In this series, the Celtics have played 13 total minutes with Pritchard, White and Holiday on the floor together. Those minutes have not been good offensively (31 points on 32 possessions), mostly because the Celtics shot just 2-for-15 from 3-point range. And they could obviously be a challenge on defense, especially on the glass.
But we’ll probably see more small-ball in Game 5, and it could help ignite the Celtics’ drive-and-kick game. Sam Hauser, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, is listed as probable for Game 5. And if he plays, he gives the Celtics more options with just one big on the floor.
3. Can the Knicks get off to a better start?
The Knicks have shown a remarkable ability to come back from big deficits in this series, but they would surely like to avoid those deficits going forward. Amazingly, they’ve lost the first quarter by at least 11 points in six of their eight meetings with the Celtics this season.
Their first-quarter issues have been on both ends of the floor, with Boston scoring 135.6 points per 100 possessions and New York scoring just 91.8 per 100 in 96 total first-quarter minutes over the eight games.
Early in the first quarter of Game 4, some missed jumpers (good looks from shooters that weren’t warm yet) kept the Knicks from getting set defensively. Late in the first (after the Knicks had come back and taken the lead), Tatum caught fire and the Celtics scored 12 points on their final four possessions.
Success on one end of the floor helps the other end, so if the Knicks can just lock in one end or the other, they should be able to avoid another ugly start.
4. Can the Celtics get a clutch bucket?
While the Knicks have struggled early, they’ve been terrific late. Six of their seven wins in the playoffs have been within five points in the last five minutes, with the exception being Game 1 of the first round, when they turned an eight-point, fourth-quarter deficit into a 13-point lead with a 21-0 run.
The Celtics were terrific in the clutch last season (27-12, including playoffs) and in the regular season (league-best 24-11), but are now 1-4 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes in these playoffs.
In this series, Boston has scored a brutal 12 points on 24 clutch offensive possessions, shooting 3-for-23 (13%) from the field, including 1-for-11 from 3-point range. They have more clutch turnovers (four) than field goals.
Through Tuesday, 53% of playoff games have been within five points in the last five minutes, up from 46% in the regular season. With this being the slowest-paced series of the conference semifinals, it’s not unlikely that we get more clutch time in Game 5.
If we do, the Celtics will need to make a shot or two.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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