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Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has been working for the Falcons for four months, but he already fits right in among the optimists in their building.
For example, this is what Ulbrich said when asked about trading away next year’s first-round pick in the deal that allowed Atlanta to pick James Pearce Jr. with the No. 26 pick this year: “I have high hopes for this team and because of that, I am anticipating that first-round pick next year is late. Because of that, you think, is there going to be a James Pearce-type player in the late 20s? I would say absolutely not in any draft, much less next year’s draft.”
That may seem like big talk coming from one of the league’s least successful teams of the last decade, but these Falcons believe they will be good in 2025 despite the fact they have had a losing record and missed the playoffs in each of the last seven seasons. They finished 8-9 last season in coach Raheem Morris’ first season, but the team’s coaches and executives believe the emergence of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a defensive overhaul that included hiring Ulbrich (for his second stint in Atlanta) and drafting four defensive rookies has the arrow pointing up.
The NFL either agrees with the Falcons that they will be good or thinks they will just be good content because Atlanta is scheduled to play five prime-time games this season, twice on “Monday Night Football” (against the Bills and Rams), twice on “Sunday Night Football” (against the Vikings and 49ers) and once on “Thursday Night Football” (against the Buccaneers).
General manager Terry Fontenot understands there is some personal urgency for him for the Falcons to make good on this season’s optimism. Fontenot is entering his fifth season in charge of Atlanta’s personnel department, and the team is 29-39 during his tenure.
“The pressure is always there,” Fontenot said. “If you’re not comfortable with the pressure, then you shouldn’t be working in the NFL.”
On Wednesday, the NFL released the full schedule that stands between Atlanta and what it believes will be its return to the winning side of the ledger. Let’s dive in.
Week 1 keys to victory
The Falcons have had the Buccaneers’ number lately. Atlanta has won four of the last five meetings, including both games last season. Tampa Bay will be happy to see Kirk Cousins on the sideline in a baseball cap (or on another team entirely) instead of in Atlanta’s starting lineup when this game kicks off.
Cousins passed 785 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception in his two games against the Buccaneers last season as Atlanta totaled 67 points. Penix probably will have to set a pace nearly that good in the season opener in September if the Falcons are going to keep their good fortune in this rivalry going. Atlanta’s new-look defense will be in its first appearance under Ulbrich and breaking in new starters throughout the front seven against Baker Mayfield and company, and it’s hard to imagine this game being a defensive struggle. Penix is going to have to play well and put points on the board.
Must-watch game: vs. Rams, Week 17
The NFL knows good theater when it sees it, which is why Morris versus Sean McVay will be televised on “Monday Night Football.” The Falcons are hopeful this game has implications beyond just a good storyline, but you can expect ESPN to milk the story either way. The basic plot is this: Morris will be trying to prove himself against the league’s coaching kingmaker in McVay, who employed Morris as his defensive coordinator in Los Angeles from 2021-2023. The pair won a Super Bowl together, and the stint with the Rams is a big reason Morris is getting a second chance as an NFL head coach. If Atlanta’s offense is humming at this point in the season, expect Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to be the subject of a lot of “The Next Sean McVay?” feature stories this week, too.
Toughest stretch
The Falcons still have bad memories from losing six of their final eight games to end last season, and the NFL has set up another daunting stretch to end the 2025 season. Week 14 brings a Seattle team that beat Atlanta by 20 points last season and is now quarterbacked by Sam Darnold, who beat the Falcons by 21 points last year. Then it’s back-to-back road games against Tampa Bay and Arizona before returning home to face the Rams in a game that will require the Falcons’ full attention.
Game that has gotten tougher: at Patriots, Week 9
If Atlanta could face last year’s Patriots, that wouldn’t be much of a problem. That team finished 4-13. Since then, though, New England has replaced coach Jerod Mayo with Mike Vrabel, who not only is a proven commodity in the league but also can pick the brain of friend and former Falcons coach Arthur Smith as he gets ready to face Atlanta. On top of that, the Patriots were the league’s biggest spenders in free agency, adding $359.7 million worth of contracts to bolster their roster around quarterback Drake Maye. At least the Falcons (probably) got a break by not going to Gillette Stadium any later in the season.
One game the Falcons can’t afford to lose: Saints, Week 18
This one requires some projection, but the NFC South is unlikely to be separated by many games, so every division game is going to be vital for Atlanta. In fact, the Falcons’ playoff hopes could come down to this final game of the season against New Orleans. If the Falcons go into Week 18 against their most hated rival with a chance to make the playoffs and lose, it would be the worst possible way to end the season.
Best offense the Falcons will face: vs. Bills, Week 6
Buffalo spent almost all its offseason capital on defense because it doesn’t need any help on offense. The Bills were second in the league in scoring (30.88 ppg) and third in offensive EPA (150.87) last season, according to TruMedia. They scored 40 or more points five times, and quarterback Josh Allen is coming off an MVP season in which he finished third in EPA per dropback. Allen does almost all the heavy lifting for Buffalo, but wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook are coming off productive seasons. The NFL probably made this the Week 6 “Monday Night Football” matchup hoping for a shootout.
Best defense the Falcons will face: at Vikings, Week 2
The NFL schedule-makers don’t want to wait long to see if Penix has the goods or not because he will be making his fifth career start against Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who last year blitzed opponents more than anyone in the NFL (41.7 percent of the time). The Vikings will throw lots of pressure looks at Penix and generally play sound defense despite their high-risk style. Minnesota was fifth in the league in points allowed (19.5 ppg) and third in defensive EPA per snap (.08) last season, according to TruMedia.
Predicted record: 9-8
The Falcons have had two winning seasons in their last 12. In that stretch, they are 86-110, giving them the 24th-best winning percentage in the league since 2013. That would make a 9-8 record this season a success of sorts, although it’s unlikely to satisfy the team or its fans unless it comes along with a playoff appearance.
Speaking of which …
Predicted NFC South finish: Second
1. Buccaneers
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Saints
The Falcons haven’t been to the playoffs since 2017, and that streak is unlikely to end this season despite the optimism within the building. While they are counting on a second-year quarterback with three career starts to lift the entire organization and a defense that was bad last year to be a lot better despite no proven personnel additions aside from Leonard Floyd, the Buccaneers are rolling into the season on the back of four straight division titles with a veteran quarterback and one of the deepest wide receiving rooms in the NFL. Tampa Bay has earned the benefit of the doubt in the NFC South, and Atlanta would have to count on luck to get into the playoffs as a wild card with a 9-8 record.
(Photo of Michael Penix Jr.: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
