The Milwaukee Brewers (31-28) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (36-22) in the finale of their 3-game series on Sunday, First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 2-0
The Brewers have won 6 games in a row, including the first 2 games of the series. After their 6-2 win on Friday, they blew out the Phillies 17-7 on Saturday. They scored 4 runs in the first inning and another 8 in the fourth and then added 5 more in the sixth. They pounded out 23 hits, led by OF Jackson Chourio’s 4 hits and 5 RBIs, including a double and his ninth home run and DH Christian Yelich’s 4 hits. 1B Rhys Hoskins homered twice and drove in 6 runs.
The Phillies have lost 3 games in a row and 4 of their last 6 contests. They have allowed 32 runs in their 3-game skid. SP Jesus Luzardo allowed 12 ER on 12 H in 3 1/3 IP. DH Kyle Schwarber had 3 hits and drove in a run in the loss.
Brewers at Phillies projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Quintana (4-1, 2.65 ERA) makes his seventh start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 34 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER (3 R), 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9
- Has been on injured list with shoulder impingement
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-2, 3.53 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 12 starts
- 2025 road splits: 3-0, 1.16 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.16 ERA, 5.4 K/9 in 4 starts
Suarez (4-0, 2.97 ERA) makes his sixth start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 30 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 2-0 home win over the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday
- Has not allowed a run in last 2 outings (12 2/3 IP)
- Career vs. Brewers: 0-1, 3.48 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 4 starts
- 2025 home splits: 2-0, 5.40 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 3 starts
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Brewers at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Phillies -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Brewers at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Brewers 3
The Phillies have not been swept at home this season and Suarez hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts and in 3 of the last 4. Meanwhile, Quintana, while great on the road this season, hasn’t pitched in almost a month.
The Brewers have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and 6 or more runs in 4 of those games.
The Phillies will avoid the sweep, but the -180 odds don’t give you the value that the spread does.
PASS.
Eight of the Phillies’ last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs. The last 4 starts by Suarez have all been wins by 2 or more runs. Meanwhile, 20 of the Brewers’ 28 losses have been by 2 or more runs.
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+120).
Suarez’ last 2 starts have been 2-0 Phillies wins. Three of his last 4 games have had totals of 8 or fewer runs.
Seven of the Brewers’ last 9 losses have had totals of fewer than 9 runs.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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