The Atlanta Braves have had no shortage of quality starting pitchers over the past couple seasons. Max Fried and Kyle Wright in 2022. Spencer Strider in 2023. Of course, we can’t forget Chris Sale’s fantastic Cy Young-worthy season last year.
While not much has gone right for the Braves this year, they’ve benefited from some strong play from Spencer Schwellenbach, who looking more and more like a Cy Young candidate every day.
Spencer Schwellenbach has quietly given the Braves another Cy Young level talent
Entering play on Monday, Schwellenbach had posted a 3.26 ERA across 96 2/3 innings this year, and is in the midst of a fantastic stretch that’s helped propel the Braves back into the fringes of the postseason picture.
Schwellenbach has posted a sparkling 2.77 ERA in 55 1/3 innings across his last eight starts — a span that includes his 11 strikeout performance against the Red Sox on his birthday along with a dominant complete game victory over the Milwaukee Brewers. That is big time no matter who are talking about.
And while Schwellenbach’s counting stats have been good, his advanced stats have been even better. He’s in the 96th percentile in walk rate (4.2%) along with being in the 94th percentile in chase rate (34.5%). So he’s commanding the zone and getting batters to swing at the pitches he throws outside of it, which are two of the most important things a starter can do in today’s MLB.
Schwellenbach’s dominance is even more valuable now after the Braves placed Sale on the injured list last week with a rib injury that’s expected to keep him out for some time. Grant Holmes is in the midst of a weird season and Strider is continuing to work himself back into form after missing a year with an elbow injury.
Schwellenbach has the 13th-best ERA in the National League, the second-best walk rate (4.2%) and the third-best WHIP (1.01). He’s a big reason why Atlanta’s starting pitchers have the NL fourth best ERA (3.64).
In his last start, Schwellenbach allowed four earned runs in seven innings against the Mets, which is two more earned runs than he allowed in all starts against New York last year. For most starters, allowing four runs over seven innings would be a cause for celebration. For Schwellebach, it was almost a low point in the season.
He’s turned in an even better follow-up effort this season, but it remains to be seen if it’ll all be for naught for a Braves team that won’t make the postseason.
