Sean Barnard provides his prediction and pick for Monday’s Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves matchup.
The Atlanta Braves will host the Chicago White Sox as part of today’s 13-game MLB slate. Neither of these teams sits where they desired in the standings, with Chicago bringing up the rear of the entire American League. This is the first matchup between the two sides this season as they open the three-game series.
Looking at tonight’s odds, the Braves enter as -206 favorites on the moneyline and hold -106 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The White Sox hold +167 odds of getting the outright victory with the run total set at 8.5.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s White Sox vs. Braves matchup.
White Sox vs. Braves prediction
It has been a nightmare season for the Atlanta Braves, who got off to a 0-7 start to the season and never truly recovered. They have climbed to 56-68, but still sit 15 games back in the NL East. They are coming off a sweep over the Cleveland Guardians and have won five straight games entering tonight. As a team, Atlanta ranks 21st in batting average, 20th in slugging, 16th in OPS, 18th in total bases, and 18th in total runs. Matt Olson leads the team with 125 hits, along with 19 home runs and a team-high 72 RBIs. Marcell Ozuna leads the team with 20 home runs along with 60 RBIs.
Spencer Strider will get the start for the Braves tonight. He is still working to get back to the All-Star level he performed at in 2023 after missing nearly all of last year with a UCL issue in his pitching arm. Strider has made 16 starts this season and enters with a 5-10 record, a 4.69 ERA, and 100 strikeouts across his first 86.1 innings pitched. The 26-year-old is coming off his worst start of the season, in which he allowed three home runs and eight earned runs in just 4.0 innings against the Mets. While the season goals for the team are likely out of reach, it is still essential for the Strider to return to form in the long run.
The White Sox enter with the worst record in the American League at 44-80 on the season. They were swept by the Royals in the previous series and have dropped 11 of their past 13 games. Chicago ranks 29th in batting average, 29th in slugging, 29th in OPS, 29th in total bases, and 29th in total runs on the season overall. Not great! Lenyn Sosa leads the team with 105 hits, 16 home runs, and 50 RBIs. It is an indictment on the White Sox roster as a whole that these figures lead the team. Mike Tauchman leads the team with a 1.9 WAR and has eight home runs and 31 RBIs tallied.
Yoendrys Gomez is set to get the start for the White Sox tonight. This will be the 25-year-old’s second start of the season and just the third of his MLB career. He has spent time with the Yankees and Dodgers already this season before landing in Chicago, and pitched in at least three games for each team. Across his first start with the White Sox, Gomez went 5.0 innings and allowed just one earned run with seven strikeouts tallied. Across the 22.2 innings pitched on the season, he holds a 5.56 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Chicago’s bullpen is posting a collective 3.85 ERA.
White Sox vs. Braves pick, best bet
Atlanta is playing their best baseball of the season with their five-game winning streak in mind. The Braves are 30-30 at home this season, while the White Sox are 18-44 on the road. Atlanta is not as bad a team as they looked to start the season, while this seems to be the true version of the White Sox.
Spencer Strider has not looked like himself of late, with 13 earned runs and 19 hits allowed across his past 8.2 innings. With Gomez also not having a convincing outlook, this game has plenty of potential for runs. Chicago has shown some signs of life offensively of late and ranks sixth in OPS and fifth in wRC+ since the All-Star break. My lean is toward the Braves covering the -1.5-run line, but I feel most confident in the run total going over. There are some fair concerns with both starting pitchers, and both teams have middle-of-the-pack bullpens. The pitching concerns are greater than the offensive shortcomings, and I expect the bats to come alive tonight. Seven of the last eight Braves games against American League opponents have gone over the total. Look for this trend to continue and for the two teams to combine for at least nine runs tonight.
Best Bet: Game Total Over 8.5 (-123)
In addition, I am backing Michael Harris II to record 2+ hits at +110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
It has been a nightmare season for the Atlanta Braves, but Michael Harris II has found his footing. On the season, he is slashing .253/.274/.414 with a .688 OPS. These each mark career lows, but the 24-year-old is inching toward his statistical norm. Over the last 28 days, he is slashing .389/.400/.713 with a 1.113 and 77 total bases tallied. He has 12 hits across his past six games.
This is a great chance to continue adding to this with Yoendrys Gomez on the mound for the White Sox. This will mark just his second start of the season after serving as a reliever and spending most of the season in Triple-A. It is a small sample size, but Gomez has struggled more against left-handed hitters, and Harris has been the Braves’ hottest hitter from this side of the plate. There are some favorable conditions expected tonight with 90-degree temperatures and a breeze blowing out to left-center field. A home run feels in play for Harris II, but I am opting to be a bit safer and taking the outfielder to tally more than 1.5 total bases just as he has in eight of the last nine games.
