Australian travellers have so far been spared flight cancellations or major disruptions, despite global airlines avoiding areas of conflict in the Middle East or suspending services altogether.
Flight trackers show airlines are avoiding airspace over Iran, Iraq and Israel, while some have cancelled services to areas on the southern side of the Gulf.
Australian Travel Industry Association (ATIA) chief executive Dean Long said many international airlines had been forced to reroute, particularly those flying through key transit hubs like Doha and Dubai.
“We’re not seeing any major cancellations or significant delays affecting Australian travellers,” Mr Long said.
“Flights are being impacted as the available corridors narrow but it’s not causing large-scale disruption for Australians at this stage.”
Former A380 captain James Nixon said avoiding certain airspace was “business as usual” for airlines.
“You just trust the security department of the airline that you’re not going to be rerouted over anything like that, and they close those air spaces immediately,” he said.
“Every day, there are airlines having to be rerouted over airspace.”
How is safety monitored?
Mr Nixon, who has 31 years’ experience flying, said companies that monitored flight risks, such as Ops Group, provided information to airlines’ security and flight planning departments.
“They just build flight paths around the areas that are closing,” he said.
“People are now being routed over Saudi and up through Egypt, and into Europe that way, and they are not going through Iraq, Iran or Jordan.”
He said at this stage, those areas on the southern side of the Persian Gulf were “completely safe”.
“It is hundreds of miles away from any action,” he said.
University of Southern Queensland Professor of Aviation Kan Tsui said airlines would be monitoring risks through their safety management systems.
“They have a standard procedure to assess the risk to any particular flight,” he said.
“Once they assess a risk to the flight that’s ongoing … they will have a plan to reroute or avoid particular airspace.”
Virgin Australia’s newly launched flights to Doha, in partnership with Qatar Airlines, haven’t been affected.
It only launched its Sydney to Doha and Brisbane to Doha services last week.
The airline is monitoring the situation closely.
Qantas doesn’t itself fly to Doha or Dubai. Those flights are operated by Emirates or Qatar.
Which Airlines are cancelling flights?
Some airlines have suspended services.
Singapore Airlines
Singapore Airlines cancelled flights to and from Dubai on Sunday after a “security assessment of the geopolitical situation”.
It warned further services on the Dubai route may be affected “as the situation remains fluid”.
British Airways
British Airways also suspended flights to Doha and Dubai. It said it was reviewing the situation for future flights.
Air France
Air France cancelled flights to and from Dubai and Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh.
Emirates
Emirates, which operates out of Dubai, has suspended all flights to Iran and Iraq for the next week at least.
Qatar Airways
Qatar Airways has cancelled flights to Iran, Iraq and Syria
It advised other passengers that some flight times may change to minimise disruptions.
Etihad Airways
Etihad Airways warned its customers the situation remained “highly dynamic”.
“Further changes or disruption, including sudden airspace closures or operational impact, may occur at short notice.”
Israel’s Airports Authority said so-called rescue flights to the country would expand on Monday to 24 a day, although each flight would be limited to 50 passengers.
Israeli airline El Al said it had received applications to leave the country from about 25,000 people in about a day.
“We always say if you’re not flying in the next 48 to 72 hours, just take a breath and let your travel agent or airline contact you,” Mr Long said.
He said early cancellations can backfire, especially when customers are trying to manage bookings on the cheapest fare types, which typically come with strict conditions.
“The worst thing you can do is pre-emptively cancel,” Mr Long said.
Could flight prices increase?
Given the volatility of the situation, Professor Tsui said the broader impacts on the aviation industry wouldn’t be known for days.
One impact of flying longer routes to avoid the region, he said, was it used more fuel.
“Whether the airline passes on the extra operational cost to passengers really depends on the airlines,” he said.
“But I predict that the airlines would pass on the cost to passengers, so maybe in the near future or in future bookings, their ticket price would be increased.”
He said another factor could be travellers cancelling their plans — perceiving, whether correctly or incorrectly, that travel was more dangerous at the moment.
“[In the past we have] seen the impacts of geopolitical risks or war affecting travel demand or tourist demand … [travellers being] more cautious, thinking about not just the ticket price itself but also their safety.”
ABC/Reuters
