The Baylor Bears (0-1) visit the No. 16 SMU Mustangs (1-0) Saturday from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (CW Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Baylor vs. SMU odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Baylor lost its opener 38-24 at home against the Auburn Tigers last week while failing to cover as a 1-point underdog. QB Sawyer Robertson had a strong performance (27-of-48, 419 yards, 3 TDs) while WR Kole Wilson had 8 receptions for 134 yards in the losing effort.
SMU opened up its season with a 42-13 blowout over the FCS East Texas A&M Lions while failing to cover as a 51-point home favorite. QB Kevin Jennings went 22-of-30 for 260 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT while adding a rushing TD. WR Romello Brinson had 7 receptions for 121 yards and a TD in the win.
Baylor leads the all-time series 37-35-5 and has won 12 straight games in the series, including 40-13 the last meeting in 2016.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Baylor at SMU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:16 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Baylor +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | SMU -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Baylor +2.5 (-105) | SMU -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Baylor at SMU picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 31, Baylor 27
PASS.
While not by much, there is better value on the SMU (-135) spread.
BET SMU -2.5 (-115).
The Mustangs opened the season against a far lesser opponent last week and were able to work out necessary kinks in the offense. While they failed to cover the massive 51-point spread, their offense was firing on all cylinders despite the interception by Jennings.
The Bears faced a tougher opponent in Auburn, but despite having home-field advantage to open the year, they could not get necessary stops. They allowed their opponent to score in every quarter. Offensively, they were also unable to generate much on the ground, with their top 2 rushers combining for just 83 yards on 20 attempts.
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BET UNDER 63.5 (-110).
Despite both teams having solid offenses, this total is too high to have confidence in. The Bears, while scoring at least a field goal in each quarter last week, struggled to move the ball with Robertson going 27-of-48 through the air. They did not show enough in their first game to point toward their ability to carry their load toward the Over.
The Mustangs will have a tougher time this week against a tougher opponent, but should be able to find the end zone with ease. They hit the Under last week, unable to carry the load while their defense allowed just 13 points.
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