Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of this past week and the Cardinals’ struggles in general is that it never feels like they’re going to win when I’m watching the game. They’re always down first. Even in their sole win of the week, the Cardinals were losing for the vast majority of the game. The Cardinals get down early, and if the offense shows up, the pitching continues giving up runs.
Tuesday broke me a little bit. Unfortunately I went to the game and honestly the game pissed me off. I feel like I am a reasonably rational fan, understanding that anything can happen in baseball, and if I was at home for that loss, it would have annoyed me sure, but I acknowledged in the preview that I didn’t expect a sweep. So I wasn’t surprised they lost. But the experience of being at the game while watching the Cardinals get shut out by the Rockies at home caused me to not want to watch the Cardinals.
I still remember coming home from work on Wednesday, seeing the Cardinals leading 5-4, and Riley O’Brien gave up a leadoff hit. That was all it took for me to turn off the game because I was in no mood to watch them blow the game. Apologies to O’Brien, he didn’t do it, but it happened an inning later. It is a complete reversal from earlier in the season when, well first off, the Cardinals weren’t losing immediately every game, but also it felt like they were never out of the game. And the games this past week were all relatively close, but I never thought they were going to win any of them and they didn’t.
The Cardinals have recently played the Marlins and got shut out twice by them. So that’s fun. It probably doesn’t mean much, but we did not catch the Marlins at a good time last time and we are this time. Coming out of the break, the Marlins won 2 out of 3 against the Padres and Brewers, and right after they won 2 out of 3 against the Cardinals, they swept the Yankees. They haven’t won a series since. They’ve won just 4 of their past 15 games.
The Marlins have a slightly below average offense, with a team wRC+ of 97, which ties with four other teams for 18th in baseball. They are led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (pictured above), who given that he came out of nowhere, one might expect to have fallen off in the 2nd half. Not so. He is in some ways a better hitter since the break. His 2nd half wRC+ is 148, but he’s walking more, striking out less, and has more power than the 1st half. He just doesn’t have a .366 BABIP. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he just got put on the 10-day IL, so we won’t be seeing him this series.
The Marlins are one of the more platooned offenses that you’ll see. I don’t in fact think a team can be more platooned than the Marlins. On Roster Resource on Fangraphs, under the section where it tells you what handedness a batter is, it will highlight their handedness which indicates they only start when they have the favorable platoon. Well four of the lefties in their “normal” lineup are highlighted and all four right-handed batters on the bench are also highlighted. So at least in theory, we’re going to see very different lineups on Monday – when Liberatore is pitching – and Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another interesting thing about their lineup? How little MLB experience it has. Eight of their 13 position players came into the 2025 season with 50 days or less of service time – and five of them had literally no service time. Four other players had less than 2 years service time, which means Derek Hill is the experienced member of their group – and he’s a 29-year-old with 592 career plate appearances.
Taking the mantle from Stowers has been Jakob Marsee, who has been unbelievably hot since he was promoted after the All-Star break. He is a lefty and he did sit yesterday against a lefty, but I would be surprised if he’s not in tonight’s starting lineup. Despite not starting, he went 2-2 with a homer yesterday. He has a 236 wRC+ in his first 17 career games. Not a typo.
The Marlins’ DH and sometimes outfielder, Heriberto Hernandez, has a 120 wRC+ in 163 PAs, but it does come with a .361 BABIP and a much lower xwOBA so he does not seem for real. Leadoff hitter Xavier Edwards has a 106 wRC+ with a .077 ISO and a much lower xwOBA as well. He’s at least done it for 871 PAs, but you got to wonder how long he can sustain this. They have two offensive-oriented catchers who have been around average offensively. Augstin Ramirez has a 98 wRC+, very bad defense, and tends to play DH when he’s not catching. Liam Hicks has a 106 wRC+, bad defense, and sometimes plays 1B.
Tonight, we’ll definitely see Dane Myers, who has a 131 wRC+ against LHP this season and a 43 wRC+ against RHP. Though he did hit a game-tying homer against a right-handed pitcher yesterday. But he usually sits against RHP for understandable reasons. We’ll also likely see 22-year-old utility man Javier Sanoja, who actually hasn’t been good against lefties this season, but he is right-handed. He has an 82 wRC+ with virtually no splits. And we might also see Eric Wagaman, who has mostly been a starter this year, but seems to have had his role reduced lately. He has a 90 wRC+ against LHP and worse against RHP.
And lastly, I must mention Troy Johnston, who is very much in the right place in the right time. Good for him. He was a 17th rounder back in 2019, he is 28-years-old and he is getting his first taste of MLB action with just 13 career games. He seems to start the majority of games against RHP, being a lefty, but doesn’t have a set position. He has been very overmatched so far in his career.
The Marlins have been middle of the pack defensively. I mentioned both of their catchers. They used to have Nick Fortes, a very defensive-oriented catcher who couldn’t hit at all. He was traded to the Rays (smart teams care very much about catcher defense). But neither of the new guys appear to be any good defensively, and in Ramirez’ case it has almost totally sapped his overall value. Doesn’t help that he has a below average batting line and plays DH when he doesn’t play catcher.
They have really good up the middle defense. Edwards has been very strong at 2B, very bad at SS. Luckily, the Marlins also have Otto Lopez, who appears to be a good defensive SS. I must point out his weird batting line. He has an 88 wRC+, but a .350 xwOBA. That is quite the disparity. Lopez is Edward’s double play partner. They are also very strong with Graham Pauley playing 3B against right-handed pitchers, who has a +6 OAA in not many innings. His bat is less strong with a 90 wRC+, but if that number is at all for real, a 90 wRC+ will work. Myers and Derek Hill form a fairly strong CF combo defensively.
Also when Stowers went down, they called up former Brewers player Joey Wiemer. He is kind of an all-defense outfielder with a not very good bat. So I said above that this is a middle of the pack defense. That’s how they’ve played all season. But part of that was Edwards playing SS. Part of that was also Connor Norby playing 3B, who was awful defensively, and he’s currently hurt. I would actually say this is a very strong defense as it is currently constructed.
This is not a great bullpen. It’s not usually a good sign when a team like the Marlins doesn’t trade a single reliever from their bullpen at the trading deadline. It’s not like they’re afraid to trade their relievers either. So that suggests they’re not working with much. They don’t appear to have a defined closer, with Calvin Faucher leading the team with 11 saves. I think he lost the job though as he has 5 blown saves to pair with it. He has also been a completely replacement level reliever so just in general not really a guy you want in the 9th inning.
Anthony Bender might be the first choice for saves right now. He picked up his 4th save yesterday and has a very shiny 2.20 ERA. His advanced stats are significantly less impressive with a 3.58 FIP and 4.36 xFIP. If you want anyone closing games, it’s probably Ronny Henriquez, who has a 33.6 K% on the year. He’s a primary slider right-handed pitcher. He hasn’t pitched since Tuesday so I’m guessing we’ll see him tonight. Lake Bachar also has a few saves and also can miss a few bats with a 27.6 K%.
They have one left-handed pitcher in their bullpen and he’s not very good. So that’ll help the Cardinals. Tyler Phillips has been decent as a multi-inning option. The Marlins have also had two other relievers who threw at least 45 pitches in relief in the past week. Vallente Bellozo has started five games and if the Marlins use him, they probably expect him to throw 2 or more innings. Tyler Zuber was the other and it’s less clear if that was a fluke where he was just needed for longer or if that will be his role. He threw 11 pitches in his other outing this past week.
Matthew Liberatore (4.08 ERA/3.76 FIP/4.28 xFIP) vs. Eury Perez (3.58 ERA/3.78 FIP/4.30 xFIP)
The 22-year-old Perez was a very big pitching prospect. He was ranked 3rd overall by Fangraphs back in 2023. He had a pretty promising first 19 starts that same year at 20-years-old. He then missed 2024 due to needing Tommy John surgery, and he’s successfully picked up where he left off. And where he left off is a relatively mediocre starter who can miss bats, but a lot of balls go in the air. His home run rate has improved, but it’s been accompanied by a lower K rate (25%). But this is also just 12 starts this year and his first post-TJ year, so him maintaining what he did can only be seen as a positive.
I think the Marlins are a pretty good matchup for Liberatore. I think their lineup against left-handed pitchers is weaker and their strongest hitter is left-handed. Previously Stowers, and at least for now, it’s Marsee. I’m just hoping for 5 innings and a strong K/BB ratio. Something he was virtually guaranteed to do in the 1st half of the season and has been sadly lacking since.
Michael McGreevy (4.41 ERA/3.57 FIP/4.26 xFIP) vs. Edward Cabrera (3.34 ERA/3.56 FIP/3.59 xFIP)
Cabrera has been pitching in MLB games since 2021 and his weakness has always been his control. He’s walked well over 10% in every season of his career. He’s fixed that. He has just an 8.1 BB% this year and his K rate hasn’t dipped with it. Cabrera throws 97, but his fastball and his sinker are both not very good pitches – they don’t get good results anyway – but all of his breaking and off-speed pitches have been more than made up the difference. Don’t expect a ton of fastballs.
McGreevy was in the majors the last time the Cardinals faced the Marlins, but his turn in the rotation did not come up. So this will be his first career game against the Marlins. Sometimes that can really work in the pitchers’ favor as we’ve seen before with the Cardinals. Let’s hope this game will be one of those times.
Andre Pallante (5.04 ERA/4.51 FIP/3.86 xFIP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (6.31 ERA/4.40 FIP/4.43 xFIP)
Two fairly similar pitchers here. Not in terms of how they pitch, but in terms of results. Both have, by advanced stats, been much better than what their ERA shows. Alcantara actually had a good start his last time out – he went 6 innings with 7 Ks and a BB and just one earned run. If you’re afraid that means Alcantara is back, well he did follow that back-to-back starts with 5 ER or more.
Pallante had a terrible 1st inning but did recover nicely to last 5 innings with eight strikeouts. He needs to figure out a way to minimize damage when he is struggling.
And there you have it. Feels pretty evenly matched honestly. I’d say every game is pretty close to a coin flip. Should be a good series. At least be better than the last one.
