Taken on Novig
Despite a tougher K matchup vs the Cubs, there is value in his outs line here. Gore has gone 6 innings in 9/12 games this season, and ironically, the 3 games he didn’t go 6 were against more mediocre lineups (CIN, BAL).
At home, he has been stellar, posting a 2.64 ERA and a .165 BAA. These numbers have led to him going over this line in every single home start this season.
And it’s not like he has done it vs weak lineups either. He did it against teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, and Cardinals, who all rank in the top 5 best hitting lineups this season.
Now, the Cubs are a top-hitting team, but in terms of getting people out, their stats are favorable. The Cubs rank 23rd in BB% vs LHP over the last month. They also hold the lowest whiff% and the 3rd lowest K% vs LHP over the last month.
This means they have not been walking or striking out, but swinging on pitches, which is great for racking up quick outs.
The last note to touch on, and personally one of my biggest factors when targeting a guy for an out line, is the state of the bullpen. The Nationals had to use 5 arms in yesterday’s game, so they would love to get a long start out of their ace today.
