Finals Film Study: Thunder offense vs. Pacers’ defense

The more fascinating battle in these NBA Finals is certainly on the Indiana Pacers’ end of the floor, where the league’s No. 1 defense will try to stop an offense that moves the ball and bodies like no other.

But the Oklahoma City Thunder’s offensive possessions will count for just as much as those of the Pacers. As such, the individual whose offense will be most scrutinized over the next two weeks is Kia MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Here are some notes, numbers and film on the Thunder offense and how the Pacers will try to stop it.

1. Defense turns into offense

The Thunder offense begins with its ability to turn steals into transition opportunities. OKC’s 10.6 steals per 100 possessions in the playoffs would be the most for any team that played beyond the first round in the last 26 years.

The Thunder have scored 235 points on their 172 possessions following a steal, a rate of 136.6 points per 100 possessions. Taking care of the ball is priority No. 1 for the Pacers.

Otherwise, you’re trying to stop a bunch of long and athletic dudes who are traveling downhill:

Like the Pacers, the Thunder will run off more than just live-ball turnovers. They have averaged only 13.9 seconds per possession, easily the shortest duration for any team in the playoffs, per Second Spectrum tracking.

The Pacers’ transition defense has been good through the first three rounds, allowing a postseason low 0.96 points per transition possession, per Synergy.

2. Can the Pacers stay with Gilgeous-Alexander?

Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have possession of the ball quite as much as the New York Knicks’ Jalen Brunson, nor have the Thunder set quite as many ball screens for him (47.1 per 100 possessions) as the Knicks set for Brunson (52.8 per 100). But game-planning against Oklahoma City’s half-court offense starts with trying to stay in front of the MVP, who’s led the league in drives per game in each of the past five seasons

Gilgeous-Alexander’s 19.1 isolations per 100 possessions in the regular season were the most for any player in the past five years. However, the Pacers aren’t going to easily give up the switch and let him isolate against Tyrese Haliburton or Myles Turner. Indiana has switched just 12% of ball screens, the lowest rate in the playoffs, per Second Spectrum.

Turner has mostly been in drop coverage, with rim protection being his No. 1 priority. That:

1. Puts pressure on Gilgeous-Alexander’s defender to get around those ball screens and stay attached to the MVP as much as possible.

2. Will have Gilgeous-Alexander shooting some pullups. He leads the playoffs by a wide margin with 66 pullup 2-pointers (4.1 per game) on 48% shooting.

Just when you think he might pull up, Gilgeous-Alexander might shake a defender out of his shoes:

The Pacers will also need to defend the MVP without fouling. He’s averaged 7.9 points per game at the line in the playoffs, and the Pacers rank 15th out of 16 playoff teams in opponent free-throw rate (32.6 attempts per 100 shots from the field). Aaron Nesmith’s 4.9 fouls per 36 minutes are the most among 95 players who’ve played at least 150 minutes in the playoffs.

3. How do the Pacers match up?

One reason why Nesmith picks up a lot of fouls is that he works hard to navigate screens. He did a terrific job as Brunson’s primary defender through the first five games of the Eastern Conference Finals.

But with Nesmith dealing with an ankle injury, Andrew Nembhard took over in Game 6, when Brunson shot just 8-for-18 and had five turnovers.

Nembhard was Gilgeous-Alexander’s primary defender in the regular season, but Nesmith played just 22 minutes against the Thunder, missing the Dec. 26 meeting when the MVP scored 45 points on 15-for-22 shooting. According to tracking data, Gilgeous-Alexander shot 11-for-18 against Nembhard over the two games.

Nembhard is a terrific defender, but he’s two inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter than Nesmith. So Gilgeous-Alexander just isn’t going to feel him as much as the bigger wing.

One of the biggest buckets in that Dec. 26 game in Indiana came when Gilgeous-Alexander took Nembhard into the post and shot a comfortable mid-range jumper over the top of him:

Of course, if the Thunder have their usual starting lineup — Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — on the floor, putting Nesmith on Gilgeous-Alexander would create problems for the Pacers elsewhere.

If Nembhard is too small to guard the MVP, he’s too small to guard Williams. Haliburton certainly has to get the Dort assignment, and Pascal Siakam will need to guard Holmgren. When the Thunder play small, with either Holmgren or Hartenstein off the floor, then the Pacers can more comfortably put Nesmith on Gilgeous-Alexander. But a Holmgren-at-the-5 lineup would make it much tougher for Turner to protect the rim.

Oklahoma City has been much better, especially offensively, with only one of the two bigs on the floor (plus-16.5 points per 100 possessions in 453 total minutes) than it’s been with both (plus-4.2/100 in 201 minutes). And it’s possible that Hartenstein won’t be as effective defensively against the Pacers’ ball and player movement as he was against Memphis, Denver and Minnesota.

The Pacers’ offense vs. the Thunder defense is the more intriguing storyline in this series, but the chess match could begin with matchups on the other end of the floor.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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