This wasn’t supposed to be possible with a roster this loaded. Maybe a five-game losing streak could have bitten the Mariners before the trade deadline, but you’d think all those deals would have made them immune to such a plunge.
However, anyone who knows baseball understands the randomness not just of individual games, but stretches of them, too. For my money, it’s the most unpredictable of America’s major sports leagues. This is why this skid is so discouraging for a team that, after acquiring Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, won 10 of their next 11 games.
Granted, that run wasn’t necessarily because of those two — Suárez is 13 for 72 with three home runs since coming aboard, and Naylor is 20 for 84 with four long balls. But this has still been hailed as one of — if not the — most talented teams in the American League for the past three weeks. Which is why it needs that first-round postseason bye — something that is on the cusp of disappearing entirely.
I know, there are more pressing matters in the minds of many Mariners fans right now. Simply getting into the playoffs is one of them.
Five days ago, Seattle was at the top of the American League wild-card standings — 2 1/2 games clear of the closest pursuer and four games clear of any team that could knock them out. Today, the M’s are the last of the three wild-card teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today, and they are just two games ahead of the Royals for that final spot. The joy of winning 10 of 11 has morphed into jitters as losses continue to stack.
There also is that AL West title, something that has eluded the Mariners since 2001. That might be satisfactory enough for your everyday Mariners die-hard. It’s a banner the Astros have had a stronghold on for most of the past decade, and Houston still has a 1 1/2-game lead in the division despite losing its past four. But this Seattle squad feels different from previous ones. This feels like one that could be the best out of 30 teams.
But having as much of an advantage in the postseason feels essential. They need that bye. With a lineup this deep and a pitching staff this impactful (even if it is struggling at the moment), playing a best-of-three series to start the playoffs leaves too much to chance.
I understand why MLB has such short series to begin the postseason (two out of three games for the bottom four seeds in the NL and AL, and three out of five in the divisional series): A) MLB wants to maximize the drama of each playoff game; and B) you can’t have the postseason go into mid-November, when the weather could seriously influence a result.
Still, that doesn’t mean these shortened series are just. Think about how the best teams in MLB fare — they typically win about 60% of their games over a 162-game season. Compare that with the best NBA teams, which typically win 75-80% of their games over an 82-game season. There are fewer variables in basketball that would allow an upset to occur — and yet every NBA playoff series is a best-of-seven. In short: MLB is perhaps the most random major sport and plays with the most random early series.
These Mariners (I think) are too good to want to chance a best-of-three. But is it realistic to snag one of those byes at this point? Sure seemed like that was the case eight days ago, when they sat 1 1/2 games behind the Tigers for the No. 2 AL seed, and three games behind Toronto for the best record in the American League. Seems a whole lot less now that they are six games behind Detroit and 7 1/2 behind Toronto.
That has been the biggest consequence of this five-game skid. Even if Seattle makes the playoffs (likely) or wins the division (50/50), it seems destined for the first-round best-of-three.
Honestly, most fans are probably just thinking about getting this team home after losing road series to the Orioles, Mets and Phillies. It’s not going to get any easier for the M’s, though.
Five-game losing streaks are killer at any point of the season. And this one likely has them saying so long to that much-needed bye.
