Charlie Cummings gives his pick and prediction on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s contest between the Valkyries and Mercury.
It’s safe to say that the Phoenix Mercury and the Golden State Valkyries experienced drastic changes this offseason.
The Valkyries were born; that certainly qualifies as a change. The all-new roster, coach, and front office are tasked with setting the tone for this franchise. Results have been promising so far, despite the 2-4 record. Head coach Natalie Nakase has played around with a zone-heavy defensive scheme and an aggressive, fast-paced style of offense. Life at Ballhalla has been good so far.
The Mercury underwent significant changes as well. After 20 seasons in the Valley, Diana Taurasi retired. Nothing can replace her image as the franchise’s icon, but Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally can go a long way towards replacing her on-court impact, and then some. Unfortunately for the Mercury, Thomas and incumbent Mercury star Kahleah Copper will remain out of the lineup with injury, testing their depth early in the season.
The Mercury are 5.5-point favorites at home and are -218 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 157.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Valkyries vs. Mercury
The home line of -5.5 indicates that the bookmakers don’t see much of a gap between the banged-up Mercury and the Valkyries. That’s not some scathing indictment of Phoenix; any team missing Kah and AT would struggle immensely. It does, however, speak to the power of Satou Sabally.
Sabally will be far and away the best player on the floor come Thursday. Her scoring, rebounding, and defending have reached new heights this season. While she can’t consistently create enough to drive an offense, she can cobble together enough for Phoenix to win against many teams. The question is, are the Valkyries one of those teams she can overcome? That’s where I am skeptical.
Pick for Valkyries vs. Mercury
Valkyries +5.5 and Under 157.5
This game could get ugly. The Valkyries have a tough, competitive defense, while Phoenix boasts one of the best defensive units in the league. Conversely, Golden State has struggled to score, and the Mercury have to scrounge for points without Kah and AT.
Golden State’s competitive nature will play a part in this. While Phoenix searches for answers without two of their three stars, the Valkyries are playing with a full deck, assuming Tip Hayes is back in the fold. If they smell blood in the water with Phoenix struggling for offense, they can go on runs that can keep them in the game. It should be an interesting test for both teams, and a tight, low-scoring affair is in the cards.
