Shane Bieber has made only four big-league starts in the last 24 months, but the Toronto Blue Jays are banking that the unanimous 2020 American League Cy Young Award winner will soon add a jolt to their rotation.
The Cleveland Guardians are trading Bieber to the Jays, the team announced Thursday. The Jays will send right-handed pitching prospect Khal Stephen, the No. 9 prospect on Keith Law’s preseason team rankings, to the Guardians in return.
Toronto’s rotation has stabilized in recent weeks, with Eric Lauer seizing a starting spot and Max Scherzer’s ailing thumb becoming merely a background concern. However, behind the healthy starting five remained a question. Lazaro Estrada and Easton Lucas have chipped in up-and-down outings when needed. Maybe a returning Alek Manoah or prospect Adam Macko could become improved depth options in the final months.
Adding the rehabbing Bieber injects the group with proven depth and real upside, without breaking up the current five.
The Guardians drafted Bieber in the fourth round in 2016, aided his development into one of the league’s top pitchers and even re-signed him once he reached free agency last winter.
Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024 and could return to a big-league mound in the next couple weeks. He made a rehab start for Double-A Akron on Tuesday, when he threw 58 pitches over four innings and tallied seven strikeouts.
As the Guardians drifted out of the AL playoff race in recent weeks — and certainly once closer Emmanuel Clase was placed on non-disciplinary paid leave Monday as part of an MLB sports betting investigation — the inquiries from contenders about Bieber’s availability only increased. Even though Bieber’s recent injury history may cast some doubt about what he could offer down the stretch, the dearth of top-tier starting pitchers on the trade market sparked more interest.
When healthy, Bieber has proven to be one of the more prolific pitchers in the sport. He has a 3.22 ERA since breaking into the majors on May 31, 2018, his 23rd birthday. Injuries have interfered with or completely derailed four of his last five seasons, including this one, but aside from his rookie year, he has never posted an ERA higher than 3.80.
Bieber, 30, is earning $10 million this season, with a $4 million buyout or a $16 million player option for 2025. He almost certainly will decline that option and re-enter the free-agent market.
The Guardians could have held onto him and, even if he opted out this winter, submitted a qualifying offer instead. Had he rejected that, the Guardians would have netted an extra draft pick. Instead, they chose to trade him, officially closing the book on a union with a pitcher who enjoyed a meteoric rise from overlooked prospect to Cy Young winner.
A third-round pick in 2024, Stephen quickly ascended Toronto’s system with minor-league dominance. The 22-year-old righty sat seventh in ERA (2.06) among all minor-league starters with at least 15 outings. Stephen ranked No. 9 on The Athletic’s Keith Law’s preseason Blue Jays prospect list.
“The most impressive thing about Khal is just that he’s continued to get better as he goes,” Blue Jays director of player development Joe Sclafani said last month.
Trade grades
Blue Jays: B+
Guardians: A
Brittany Ghiroli: It’s no secret that the Blue Jays need starting pitching help, a fact that was on full display when they dropped three of four games to the Baltimore Orioles earlier this week. However, Toronto’s minor league system isn’t particularly strong, making it understandable that the current clubhouse — while excited for the front office to make moves — was also a little leery of what that could potentially cost.
“We’re probably going to lose some guys in here,” starter Kevin Gausman said.
And while they still could deal from their big-league roster, particularly from a glut of outfielders, Toronto’s ability to maneuver and take a flier on Bieber coming back from Tommy John surgery is a savvy play.
Bieber, who recently started at Double A on his way back, has dealt with elbow issues since 2023, so the Jays must really like what they’ve seen while scouting the former Cy Young winner’s rehab starts. Bieber is also still owed roughly $3.5 million on the season and has a $16 million player option (with a $4 million buyout) that lessened the Guardians’ ability to command a bigger return.
There is risk here, but also huge upside for the Jays, who are in win-now mode atop the AL East. This can’t be the Jays’ only starting move, but it’s a solid depth play without breaking up the current rotation, which has been bolstered by Scherzer’s return and the emergence of Lauer. A year ago, general manager Ross Atkins made a flurry of moves in selling off expiring contracts to acquire pitching depth. Now, we’ll see if he’s as aggressive on the other side of the trade market.
For Cleveland, shedding Bieber’s salary — particularly for next year — and getting a well-thought-of pitching prospect into the Guardians’ well-regarded pitching factory is a win-win. Stephen is a former third-round pick with a fastball that touches 96mph and impressive control. He has a 5.1 percent walk rate across three levels.
Blue Jays: B+
Guardians: A
Stephen J. Nesbitt: This wasn’t the arm I expected the Blue Jays to target at the trade deadline, but it’s an intriguing one. Jays starters had the sixth-worst ERA in the majors in the first half of the season (4.60 ERA), and while they’ve been healthier and better recently, it’s still a unit that needed reinforcing. Lauer is having a breakout season, and the other four starters — Scherzer, Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos — are proven veterans throwing well lately. Add Bieber to the mix and that six-man rotation has combined for 18 top-10 Cy Young finishes; Scherzer won the award three times, Bieber once.
Bieber’s return from Tommy John surgery was slowed by a setback early this summer, but he seems to be progressing nicely now. He threw 57 pitches in his last rehab start and should be back on a major-league mound in mid-August. Considering Bieber’s resurgence prior to the 2023 elbow surgery — 20 strikeouts over 12 scoreless innings — he could be a real asset for the Jays come October. If all the arms are healthy, they’ll be able to get creative with how they deploy the starters they can’t squeeze into a playoff rotation.
Because Bieber is likely to decline his $16 million player option this fall, he’s effectively a rental. With that in mind, the Guardians did very well in this trade to land Stephen for a guy who’s made only four starts since the 2022 All-Star break. They turned a roughly $7 million investment in Bieber this season into a 22-year-old starter who is soaring up prospect lists. Stephen, a third-round pick in 2024, was ranked No. 5 in the Blue Jays system by Baseball America, and FanGraphs recently named him the No. 80 prospect in the sport. He has a 2.36 ERA this season across three minor-league levels. He is what they call a quick riser.
(Photo of Shane Bieber in April 2024: Lindsey Wasson / Associated Press)
