Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows is back in the Premier League predictions chair to provide his insight and best bets.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Trimmed from 20/1 to 8/1 in the summer to win the Premier League, there is a chance Enzo Maresca just might be building something extremely exciting at Chelsea.
And why should we be taking them seriously? Moises Caicedo and Cole Palmer – they are Chelsea’s assassins and quite possibly the core of what could be a title-winning side.
Since Caicedo has found rhythm in the Chelsea midfield, he has owned so many games, including the Club World Cup final against PSG. If Chelsea are going to suffocate opponents and dominate the ball in big games – which they will need to do to win a title – it all starts with Caicedo.
And Palmer is the stardust. When the spotlight is on, when the stage is at it’s highest, Palmer performs. He can go to Eden Hazard’s levels of domination at Chelsea this season.
This axis puts Chelsea in the title mix, no question. It’s a four-way fight. And they can start with a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Nottingham Forest played some unsustainable football last season and it’s very hard to see how they’re going to improve on what they achieved.
Top goalscorer Chris Wood converted 30 per cent of his overall attempts in the Premier League last term, while goalkeeper Matz Sels enjoyed the season of his life, boasting the best save percentage in the league. They can’t be expected to keep those numbers up.
And Forest return to Europe this season which is bound to influence the side’s performance. If you exclude Conference League participants, non-big-six teams who qualify for Europe win around 14 points fewer in the campaign immediately following qualification.
That isn’t too relevant for this devilishly difficult fixture to analyse from a betting perspective, but something to note when the fixtures start to pile up. This clash looks one where the draw is a huge runner at 12/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This is going to a very watchable fixture, steeped in Premier League narrative – but one where goals could be lacking.
I’m firmly in the under 2.5 goals camp – and at the prices on offer at 10/11 with Sky Bet I’m happy to endorse it as one of the best bets of the weekend.
Arsenal are traditionally a very reliable team to back under goals away from home, albeit also a risky favourite to back in these spots.
When assessing the last nine games where they’ve gone off 11/10 or bigger on the road, they have won just once and the average goals per game sits at just 1.89 per 90 with seven of those nine going under 2.5 goals.
Additionally, seven of those games finished all-square while four of the five meetings between Mikel Arteta and Ruben Amorim have also ended level.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Lots of the focus and pre-match narrative will be about Leeds, but I’m excited to see what Everton can do this season.
I think we need to start putting some serious respect on what David Moyes is doing in the Premier League – I for one haven’t given him enough credit. Since taking over at West Ham, he has recorded a 37 per cent win ratio in the Premier League – that’s higher than Sean Dyche, Andoni Iraola, Marco Silva and Graham Potter.
And when Jarrad Branthwaite was fit last season (he started 28 games), Everton conceded just 28 goals in those matches – that’s one goal per game, which would equate to being the second-best defensive record in the Premier League last season.
With Branthwaite tied down to a new deal and money to spend, Moyes just may have the tools to overachieve on expectations. I like their chances at Elland Road, too, as Moyes has an exceptional record against newly-promoted teams, recording a 67-per-cent win rate from the last 16 fixtures. The away win looks big at 19/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
- 1pt double on: Aston Villa to beat Newcastle & under 2.5 goals in Manchester United vs Arsenal (11/5 with Sky Bet) ❌
