Welcome to week three of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where the subscribers are setting a rather troubling pace.
It wasn’t just Liverpool fans celebrating wildly when 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha scored that dramatic winner at St James’ Park on Monday night.
More than 3,000 miles away in the U.S. state of Rhode Island, Sunderland fan Derek was punching the air. As well as condemning Newcastle, Sunderland’s arch-rivals, to an agonising 3-2 home defeat, Ngumoha’s goal extended the subscribers’ lead at the top of our Premier League predictions table.
“When Liverpool were up 2-0 against 10 men, I thought it was a done deal,” Derek says. “How wrong I was — as was the case with my Sunderland pick.”
Wrong in the moment… and yet right when it mattered.
Each week, a different Athletic subscriber is chosen to join an algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and me, Oli Kay, in predicting the Premier League results. We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for getting the result right.
There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so Derek got two points for being the only one to call Liverpool’s victory in Newcastle.
He got one scoreline right (Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest) and called another five results correctly. That bonus point, thanks to Ngumoha’s stoppage-time winner, meant he equalled Vaageesh’s nine-point haul in week one, taking the subscribers three points clear at the top after two rounds.
There were two other bonus points awarded last weekend: one for me for calling Burnley’s victory over Sunderland (sorry, Derek) and one for the algorithm for being spot-on with Fulham 1-1 Manchester United.
Spare a thought for Wilf, who was on course for a massive four-pointer after 99 minutes with Newcastle and Liverpool locked at 2-2 — only to be denied by Ngumoha’s goal. A bit mean to pick on the younger kids like that, Rio.
“So close to glory,” Wilf’s dad tells us. “Gutted.”
This week’s subscriber is Katherine, a 43-year-old Chelsea fan from London, who, after Vaageesh’s and Derek’s efforts, has a lot to live up to.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Chelsea vs Fulham, Saturday, 12.30pm UK/7.30am ET
Katherine says: “The feeling of optimism going into this season has been through the roof and scoring five goals without Cole Palmer last weekend only adds fuel to that fire. Fulham are a solid team and are difficult to beat (which we found out last season), but I’m confident we’ll have too much for them.”
Chelsea 3-1 Fulham
Oli says: Remarkably, Chelsea are starting their season with four consecutive London derbies. In fact, only one of their first eight Premier League games is outside the capital’s M25 orbital motorway. It must all feel rather parochial for the new world champions, but they seemed to enjoy themselves out east at West Ham last weekend. This might be more of a battle — like their opening game, a goalless draw at home to Crystal Palace — but although I never feel totally confident in backing this Chelsea team, I fancy a home win, even if they are again without the injured Palmer.
Chelsea 2-1 Fulham
Chelsea beat West Ham 5-1 away last week (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Manchester United vs Burnley
Oli says: For all the excitement surrounding their new additions, it’s only one point from two games for Manchester United this season, plus that shock Carabao Cup loss to fourth-tier Grimsby Town in midweek. More glaringly, it’s just 28 points from 29 games under Ruben Amorim since his appointment last November. That early-season optimism is going to give way to gloom if they can’t get some wins on the board very quickly. With Manchester City away and Chelsea at home straight after the international break that begins on Monday, victory in this game seems essential.
United 2-0 Burnley
Sunderland vs Brentford
Oli says: As nice as it is to see Sunderland enjoying their return to the top flight after eight years away, wouldn’t it have been nicer still if Jordan Henderson was back at his hometown club rather than potentially lining up against them this weekend? His best years are behind him, but he would have been ideal for the Granit Xhaka role — as indeed is Granit Xhaka. Henderson made a real difference to Brentford’s midfield last weekend on his first start for them, so Keith Andrews’ team shouldn’t be the soft touch they looked like in week one away to Nottingham Forest.
Sunderland 1-1 Brentford
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth
Oli says: This is all feeling quite August 2023 for Tottenham, isn’t it? New manager, new optimism, strong start and a sudden sense of: “Hey, these players are actually pretty good, you know?” Those feelings quickly faded under predecessor Ange Postecoglou — unbeaten in his first 10 Premier League games, then 34 defeats in the next 66 — but I do feel an upturn could prove more sustainable this time under Thomas Frank.
Tottenham 2-1 Bournemouth
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Everton
Oli says: I’m struggling to find cause for optimism for Wolves at the moment. Vitor Pereira did such a good job when he came in midway through last season, but a difficult summer has left the squad looking well short, whereas Everton will be energised by last week’s lift-off at their new home and by the additions of Jack Grealish and Tyler Dibling.
Wolves 0-1 Everton
Leeds United vs Newcastle United
Oli says: My historic references last week led subscriber Sam K to accuse me of living in the 1950s. Come on, Sam. Let’s get this right: 1980s, 1990s, even early 2000s, but not 1950s. Anyway, for me, this fixture evokes the turn-of-the-century feeling that anything was possible. (Spoiler: it wasn’t, particularly for these two clubs.) It’s Lee Bowyer, it’s Jonathan Woodgate, it’s Mark Viduka, it’s James Milner, it’s Alan Smith. It’s a Kevin Keegan meltdown in front of the TV cameras at Elland Road and it’s chairman Peter Ridsdale living the dream while feeding his tropical fish in the executive suite. It’s two clubs who, after a miserable period, are now in a happier place again. And it’s… very hard to call actually, but I’m going to go for a depleted Newcastle battling to their first win of the season.
Leeds 1-2 Newcastle
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City
Oli says: We all overestimated City last week. If this transition to a new-look team is going to work, it needs more of a balance between freshness and familiarity. I expect a more recognisable line-up from Pep Guardiola at Brighton — and possibly a more recognisable performance.
Brighton 1-2 City
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United
Oli says: I really like this Forest team. I don’t like this West Ham team. I’m not talking about the club, the fans, the manager or individual players, some of whom I like; I mean the team. It lacks speed, it lacks heart and it lacks identity. I’m not sure what it’s meant to be. Their first two performances of the season have been really poor. It might get worse before it gets better.
Forest 3-0 West Ham
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Oli says: Isn’t it a bit early to have the two title favourites facing each other? I don’t like it. The transfer window is still open and teams are still finding their rhythm. Having this match now also means the return fixture is in the first week of January, right at the end of the hectic festive programme when players are running on fumes. I don’t like that either. Anyway, if I’m filibustering, it’s because I have no idea which way this is going to go — and I’m determined not to say a draw, even though I want to.
(Deep breath)… I’m going for an Arsenal win. I just don’t think Liverpool have settled yet — two wins, but two shaky performances. And if they prove me wrong, as they did by winning at Newcastle, I will absolutely reinstate them as my title favourites.
Liverpool 1-2 Arsenal
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Oli says: Villa have been surprisingly slow out of the blocks — no goals scored yet, and just one point from their first two games. Palace haven’t exactly hit the ground running either, but their two draws seem more justifiable given their European commitments and an ongoing sense of disruption in the transfer market. This is a chance for Villa to kick-start their season. If they don’t, manager Unai Emery will be concerned, with PSR calculations still a concern as Monday’s transfer deadline looms.
Villa 2-1 Palace
(Top photo: Getty Images; design: Demetrius Robinson)
