After a July that ended only slightly below normal in the rainfall category for New York City, August has left the city completely parched so far.
Central Park has recorded .06 inch of rain, which less than 5 percent of the normal 1.7 inches we should have. Showers and storms are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, but we won’t likely get enough to erase our deficit.
The rain will develop Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. It will come in pockets, not a steady line of showers, so have an umbrella close even though you’re not guaranteed to get wet.
Where the rain does fall, it could fall hard. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center is highlighting most of the Hudson Valley and western New Jersey as a zone for isolated minor flooding. We don’t anticipate the level of flash flooding we saw a few weeks ago, but ponding on low lying roadways and flood-prone areas is possible, especially during the evening commute.
Wednesday’s rain will taper off through the evening and we’ll manage a mostly dry night before we face yet another round of rain on Thursday. These storms will also begin in the afternoon – the hottest part of the day – and bring isolated heavy downpours and thunder. It’s another day for you to pack the umbrella, in case you get caught under one of these cells. The good news is that, even in the strongest cells, severe weather is not likely.
Rain totals will be, in general, less than half of an inch in most places. There will be some locally higher totals, up to about an inch, but that should be the high end of our accumulation.
Despite the modest rainfall totals, the midweek storms will give us the most rain we’ve seen so far this month. Climatologically, mid-way through the month we should have around two inches. As of Tuesday, we’ve only measured .06 inch. This week’s rain will help reduce the deficit, but it won’t erase it.
And once the rain passes on Thursday, the weekend is dry into the weekend and next week. This is good news for outdoor plans, but bad news for plants.
