The 2025 Western Conference finals will be a family affair this season as presumptive NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, his cousin. According to Gilgeous-Alexander on Sunday, they are even closer than that. “He’s literally like my second brother,” Gilgeous-Alexander said after the Thunder knocked out the Denver Nuggets and clinched the matchup. That doesn’t mean he’s going to go easy on his cousin, though. “I am trying to take his head off for sure,” he confirmed. “Completely.”
He’ll have every opportunity to do so. While Alexander-Walker does not start for Minnesota, his perimeter defense is his calling card. He will spend plenty of time matched up against his cousin, and the winner of that battle might determine the winner of the series. This begs the question: how well has Alexander-Walker actually defended Gilgeous-Alexander?
While the sample in any individual matchup between a starter and a reserve is going to be small, NBA.com matchup data does at least give us a glimpse into what’s happened when they’ve gone head-to-head. Unsurprisingly, the superstar has the advantage over the role player.
Across the six seasons Alexander-Walker has been in the NBA, he has spent a total of 28 minutes and 17 seconds as the primary defender on Gilgeous-Alexander, according to the league’s tracking data. In that time, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 68 points on 27-of-51 shooting from the floor, so roughly 53% shooting. These shots have almost entirely come inside the arc, so they aren’t reliant on shooting luck from deep. Gilgeous-Alexander is just beating his cousin one-on-one, and even when he doesn’t make a shot, he’s getting to the line plenty. He’s drawn 16 free-throws in this sample.
Again, this shouldn’t surprise you. Alexander-Walker is a very good defender, but Gilgeous-Alexander is about to win his first MVP Award. There are levels to this. Barely anyone defends him well, and that poses significant problems for any team hoping to beat him in a seven-game series.
Fortunately, Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t completely invulnerable. While he routinely roasts whatever guards he faces, he’s had a bit more trouble against bigger wing defenders. Think back to second round last season. Derrick Jones Jr. gave Gilgeous-Alexander real problems. In that series against Dallas last season, Gilgeous-Alexander shot 9 of 24 from the field against Jones. During this regular season, it was 7 of 22. Another defender who has historically had success against Gilgeous-Alexander? Pelicans wing Herb Jones. While the two didn’t see each other this season, in the previous two, Jones held Gilgeous-Alexander to 18-of-46 shooting.
Most wings just aren’t fast enough to keep up with a guard as quick as Gilgeous-Alexander. The few that are have a tremendous advantage against him because they are big enough to provide a real deterrent near the rim while also having enough length to contest his mid-range and baseline jumpers. Nobody is going to truly stop him, but if a bigger defender can remain disciplined and avoid fouling, they can at least force him to work for his points.
So, what does this mean for the Western Conference finals? Well, fortunately, the Timberwolves have one such big wing to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander: Jaden McDaniels. Across the last five seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander has shot 31 of 72 against McDaniels, or roughly 43%.
So, does this mean Alexander-Walker should never defend his more famous family member? Of course not. That’s not how basketball works. A defense doesn’t simply get to dictate matchups on every single possession. Switches happen. Matchups get mixed up in the chaos of transition. In this series in particular, the Timberwolves are sure to use plenty of zone-defense after the Nuggets had a lot of success using it against the Thunder last round.
Slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander is not a one-man job. McDaniels is going to get the primary matchup, but every player on the floor for Minnesota is going to be a part of slowing him down. Alexander-Walker will be heavily involved in that effort, and on a lot of those possessions, he’ll be left on an island against his relative, and if he can’t at least slow him down, the Thunder are probably going to win this series comfortably. The matchup of cousins is going to be an essential component of this series. It just won’t be close to the only one.
