Detroit Tigers starter Casey Mize aims for his fifth win in six starts this season when he takes the mound against the struggling Los Angeles Angels on Thursday at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California in the opener of a four-game series. Mize (4-1, 2.12 ERA), who has won back-to-back outings, has allowed fewer than two runs in each of his victories this year and tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings in his only turn versus the Angels in 2024. Los Angeles hopes to halt its five-game losing streak as it counters with Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 4.31), who is winless in his last eight starts dating back to last season with the Houston Astros.
Sportsbooks have set Kikuchi’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5 (Over -152, Under +113), while Mize’s is 4.5 (Over -106, Under -123). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Mize Over 4.5 as a 4-star play and Kikuchi Over 5.5 as a 3-star play on its five-star scale.
Mize’s ranks as one of the top three pitcher strikeout props for Thursday’s 11-game schedule. The model also has found one pitcher strikeout prop rated at 5 stars and another rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Brad Lord Over 3.5 strikeouts (-108) vs. Phillies (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
Lord will be making his fifth consecutive start after beginning his first major-league season with three relief appearances but remains in search of his first career victory. The 25-year-old right-hander, who has yet to work more than 4 1/3 innings, went Over this number in two of his first four turns in the rotation. Lord is facing a Phillies team that has struck out four or more times in 27 of its first 30 games this year, reaching double digits on eight occasions.
Casey Mize Over 4.5 strikeouts (-106) vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
Mize recorded six strikeouts in each of his first two starts this season and went Over this number again in his last outing, fanning five batters over 5 1/3 innings en route to victory against the Baltimore Orioles. The 28-year-old righty will be going up against an Angels squad that ranks fifth in the major leagues with 278 strikeouts this year. Los Angeles has four players that have struck out 31 or more times thus far in 2025 – including Jorge Soler, whom Mize has fanned three times in career 11 at-bats.
Justin Verlander Under 6.5 strikeouts (-110) vs. Rockies (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
Verlander ranks 10th on MLB’s all-time strikeouts list and the Rockies have struck out a major league-high 312 times this season. But the three-time Cy Young Award winner has gone Over this number just once over the first six starts of his 20th major-league campaign. The 42-year-old Verlander recorded five strikeouts across six innings against the Texas Rangers in his last outing and has fanned 12 batters over 17 2/3 frames in his past three turns.
