Who experts have Red Sox selecting on eve of draft

As the Red Sox’ top three prospects entering the season have either graduated or are set to graduate as prospects in the coming weeks, their farm system is set to get replenished in the coming days.

The 2025 MLB Draft will take place on Sunday and Monday. The first three rounds and compensation rounds will take place on Sunday, with the Red Sox holding four selections in the first 105 picks. The first of those picks will be the 15th overall pick, which is the latest the Red Sox have picked in the first round in three years.

While the track record of players selected with the 15th overall pick hasn’t been great in recent years, the last three picks the Red Sox have made in the top 20 have been pretty notable. Marcelo Mayer is finally up in the majors after getting selected with the fourth overall pick in 2021, while Boston’s last two first-round picks (Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery) were used to acquire Garrett Crochet this offseason.

Will the Red Sox’ next first-round pick prove to be an important prospect or a pivotal piece to a major trade? We won’t know that answer for a bit, but here are the players draft experts are projecting the Red Sox to select with their first-round pick.

The Red Sox have typically shied away from drafting high school players with their top picks as of late, but McDaniel has them selecting the right-handed hitting Fien at No. 15.

“Fien has a good chance to land here, as long rumored,” McDaniel wrote. “I think he’s underrated due to an uneven spring after he was one of the better hitters on the summer circuit. Xavier Neyens and Gavin Kilen (whom the Red Sox almost signed out of high school) have also been connected here.”

Fien, who hit .358 with five homers and eight stolen bases in 30 games this past season, has been regarded as one of the top players in the 2025 recruiting class and has made a verbal commitment to Texas. Standing at 6-foot-3, Fien’s size gives him a strong chance to stay at third base when he plays at the next level, according to MLB.com’s scouting report of him.

McDaniel ranked Fien as the 12th-best prospect in the 2025 draft, although he noted that some scouts believe he had an “uneven spring.”

“Fien had arguably the best pure hit/power combo on the summer circuit last year and has grown into plus projections for his raw power along with enough defensive ability to stick at third base,” McDaniel wrote. “I basically had him ranked here entering the spring based on that and have chosen to leave him here despite a rough spring that has confused scouts.”

Mayo has the Red Sox adding some more middle infield depth to their farm system with their first-round pick, but he could also see them nabbing one of the top college arms if he’s still available at No. 15.

“This is another team contemplating whether to go in the arm or bat direction, and they could tilt toward the mound if [Oklahoma RHP Kyson] Witherspoon is around,” Mayo wrote. “If not, Houston might lead the way among the college hitters like [Arizona OF Brendan] Summerhill or [Arkansas SS Wehia] Aloy, with [UC Santa Barbara SP Tyler] Bremner in play should the desire for a pitcher win the day.”

Houston, a right-handed hitter, was among the best hitters in the ACC this past season, hitting .354 with a 1.055 OPS and 15 home runs in 15 home runs in 61 games. He also had 19 stolen bases in 21 attempts.

Prior to a strong 2025 campaign at Wake Forest, Houston earned Cape Cod Baseball League All-Star honors in 2024. He hit .306 with a .794 OPS in 27 games.

In its scouting report of Houston, MLB.com noted that his strongest trait is his fielding ability.

“Houston earns solid-to-plus grades for his quickness and arm strength, and some evaluators will go even higher than that on his ability to play shortstop,” MLB.com’s scouting report of Houston read. “He has smooth actions and plenty of range to both sides and should be a high-quality defender at the big league level. Should he not hit enough to merit an everyday role, he has the tools to play almost anywhere on the diamond as a utilityman.”

Baseball America‘s Carlos Collazo: Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee

The Red Sox actually drafted Kilen in 2022, selecting him in the 13th round. But he fell deep in the draft that year due to a strong belief that he would honor his commitment to Louisville, which he wound up doing at the time.

Three years later, Kilen is among the top middle infield prospects in the 2025 MLB Draft. He transferred to Tennessee ahead of the 2024 season, turning into one of the top hitters in the SEC as Collazo thinks he fits the Red Sox’ preferred mold of hitters.

“The Red Sox are starting a run of model-heavy teams that are largely associated with hitters and many of the same college hitters are linked to them all, including Kilen, Brendan Summerhill, Marek Houston, Wehiwa Aloy and Caden Bodine. It sounds like this could be one of the highest potential landing spots for Gavin Fien.”

Kilen’s stats at the plate were eerily similar to Houston’s this past season. He, a lefty, hit .357 with a 1.112 OPS and 15 home runs, adding six stolen bases in 53 games.

Even though the Red Sox have had a change in front office leadership since they first drafted Kilen in 2022, his MLB.com scouting report reads like a player who’d fit their Driveline hitting approach.

“With outstanding hand-eye coordination, a quick left-handed swing and feel for the barrel, Kilen continues to excel as a contact hitter,” MLB.com wrote in its scouting report of Kilen.

CBS Sports‘ Mike Axisa: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

Axisa also has the Red Sox picking Houston at No. 15, believing that his profile matches what the team wants out of their hitters as prospects.

“Boston’s hitter development (specifically bat speed development) is among the best in the sport and has turned Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and others into top prospects,” Axisa wrote. “Houston is an analytical darling thanks to his swing decisions and contact rates. This is more of a ‘fit’ pick than anything. Houston could really explode with added strength and power. For him, the Red Sox would be a great landing spot developmentally.”

In a different scouting report of Houston, The Athletic‘s Keith Law noted that the power he displayed this past season is a bit of an “illusion” as he hit 11 of his 15 homers in Wake Forest’s “shoebox” of a home ballpark. However, Law also noted that Houston’s contact rate could help his chances at becoming a strong player at the professional level.

“He does have very strong hand-eye coordination and almost never whiffs on pitches in the zone, with a short swing that had him over a 50 percent groundball rate as a sophomore but down to 44 percent this year,” Law wrote. “He’s a high-floor, lower-ceiling prospect, unless someone foresees more power in his future than I do. He is a definite shortstop who hits the ball hard enough to keep his average up against good pitching.”

As mentioned by Collazo, Aloy is also among the group of middle infielders who fit the mold of what the Red Sox want to do with their hitting prospects. Law seems to agree with that sentiment.

“I don’t think the Red Sox are anti-pitching — like some teams — but with their first pick they appear more likely to go hitter than pitcher, and more likely to go college than high school,” Law wrote. “I wonder if they’d consider high schooler Gavin Fien, however, since his batted-ball data was among the best from the showcases last year. (I mean, I’d take him here, but it’s not my pick.)”

Aloy, a right-handed hitter, has had a relatively unconventional rise. He went from Sacramento State to Arkansas after a strong freshman season, starring with the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox in the Cape Cod Baseball League last summer (.309 batting average, eight home runs in 21 games). This past season, Aloy was one of the best power hitters in the SEC (21 home runs, tied for second) to go with a strong batting average (.350) and OPS (1.107).

Law questioned if Aloy is a long-term fit at shortstop, thinking he could move over to third base in the future, and has some concerns about his ability to hit breaking balls. However, Law believes that a tweak in his stance could be a game-changer for Aloy.

“He does hit the ball hard when he makes contact, though, with a hard-hit rate of 54 percent and 90th percentile [exit velocity] of 107.2 mph, so there’s plenty of bat here if he can bring the contact rate up even half a grade,” Law wrote. “Just that one modest improvement would take him from a potential regular at shortstop to a potential star.”