Two of the three best teams in the WNBA so far this season will face off on Thursday night, as the 10-1 New York Liberty host the 9-4 Phoenix Mercury, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back.
That’s not the only game in the W on Thursday, as Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever hit the road to play the Golden State Valkyries, who have surprised a lot of people early in the 2025 season, winning five of their first 11 games.
The Liberty are set as sizable favorites at home, but Phoenix is coming off a hard-fought win over the Connecticut Sun last night – their third in a row. Meanwhile, Clark and the Fever are 11-point road favorites against a Golden State team that has lost several players to EuroBasket.
Here’s a full breakdown of tonight’s slate, including my favorite spread bet and my favorite prop bet for the action.
Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sabrina Ionescu OVER 19.5 Points (-120)
Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu has been on fire to start the 2025 season, averaging 20.8 points per game while shooting 45.8 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from beyond the arc.
Ionescu has scored 34 points in each of her last two games, shooting 23-for-40 from the field and 8-for-18 from beyond the arc during that stretch. Overall, the All-Star guard has scored 20 or more points in six of her 11 games in 2025, including her last three contests.
While this is a tough matchup against the No. 4 defense in the W in Phoenix, I have a hard time fading Ionescu given how many shots she’s putting up on a nightly basis.
The Liberty star is averaging 15.1 shots per game, and she’s taken at least 14 shots in six of her last seven games, attempting 20-plus shots in three of those contests.
Over her last seven games, Ionescu is averaging 24.9 points per game while shooting 39.4 percent from 3. If she continues to be this efficient, she’s a great bet to clear this number for the seventh time in 2025.
Indiana Fever -11 (-110) vs. Golden State Valkyries
This is a huge number to lay with the Fever, especially since Golden State is 7-4 against the spread this season, but this isn’t the Valkyries team that we’ve seen for much of the season.
Four of Golden State’s top seven players in minutes per game are not with the team and participating in EuroBasket. Temi Fágbénlé, Julie Vanloo, Justė Jocytė, Cecilia Zandalasini, Janelle Salaün and Iliana Rupert are all away from the team.
Salaun and Fagbenle are two of the team’s top four scorers, so it’s going to be tough for the Valkyries to replace them, especially since they’re one of the worst offenses in the league already this season.
Golden State ranks 11th in offensive rating, 13th in 3-point percentage and 10th in effective field goal percentage so far in 2025. That’s going to be a massive issue against Clark and the Fever, who have one of the best attacks in the W.
This season, even with Clark missing time with an injury, the Fever are fourth in the league in offensive rating and points per game. They’ve won by 14 and 17 points in Clark’s two games back in action, ending the Liberty’s perfect start to the 2025 campaign in the process.
Even though the Valkyries have been great against the spread, I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep up in this matchup with so many key rotation players not with the team.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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